This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8036 (+225 or +2.88%)
The AU200 surged strongly from 7811 to 8036 this week, marking a significant upward trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Jun)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8056. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8076, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8096 and potentially 8136.
If we cannot close above 8016, we could see a move back to test 7996 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7976, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7936.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18726 (+256 or +1.39%)
The DAX is trending upwards, rising strongly from 18470 to 18726 this week, indicating a solid bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jul)
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18773. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18820, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18866 and potentially 18959.
If we cannot close above 18278, we could see a move back to test 18134 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 17990, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17746.
US
S&P 500 – 5627 (+64 or +1.15%)
The US500 is trending upwards, rising from 5563 to 5627 this week, showing a strong and promising bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Tue 02:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/13)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5641. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5655, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5669 and potentially 5697.
If we cannot close above 5612, we could see a move back to test 5598 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5584, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5556.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6770 (+22 or +0.33%)
The AUDUSD is trending slightly upwards, moving from 0.6748 to 0.6770 this week, showing a modest bullish trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Jun)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Mon 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Tue 02:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/13)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6785. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6797, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6805 and potentially 0.6813.
If we cannot close above 0.6765, we could see a move back to test 0.6755 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6745, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6728.
EUR/USD – 1.0885 (+58 or +0.54%)
The EURUSD chart is trending strongly upwards, surging from 1.0827 to 1.0885 this week, indicating robust bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jul)
Thu 22:15 – EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:45 – EUR ECB Press Conference
Mon 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Tue 02:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/13)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0910. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0935, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0961 and potentially 1.1018.
If we cannot close above 1.0860, we could see a move back to test 1.0835 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0810, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0762.
GBP/USD – 1.2966 (+159 or +1.24%)
The GBPUSD chart is trending strongly upwards, climbing from 1.2807 to 1.2966 this week, indicating a significant bullish move.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – GBP Inflation Rate YoY (Jun)
Thu 16:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate (May)
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales YoY (Jun)
Mon 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Tue 02:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/13)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2999. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3032, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3069 and potentially 1.3133.
If we cannot close above 1.2933, we could see a move back to test 1.2900 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2863, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2807.
USD/JPY – 158.31 (-227 or -1.41%)
The USDJPY chart is trending sharply downwards, dropping from 160.58 to 158.31 this week, showing a substantial bearish movement.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jul)
Tue 02:30 – USD Fed Chair Powell Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/13)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 158.69. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 159.03, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 159.23 and potentially 159.54.
If we cannot close above 158.02, we could see a move back to test 157.78 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 157.57, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 157.03.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2408 (+23 or +0.96%)
Gold is trending strongly upwards, rising from 2385 to 2408 this week, showing significant bullish momentum in the market.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2414. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2421, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2429 and potentially 2435.
If we cannot close above 2401, we could see a move back to test 2394 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2386, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2380.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 60667 (+5041 or +9.06%)
Bitcoin surged strongly from 55626 to 60667 this week, indicating a robust bullish trend with significant price movement.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 60811. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 61005, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 61202 and potentially 61834.
If we cannot close above 60423, we could see a move back to test 60229 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 60032, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 59400.
