This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7628 (-171 or -2.19%)
The AU200 chart is trending downwards with a notable drop from 7799 to 7628 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:00 – AUD Bank Services PMI
Tue 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Wed 11:30 – AUD Inflation Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7811. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7902, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7993 and potentially 8105.
If we cannot close above 7445, we could see a move back to test 7354 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7263, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7172.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 17822 (-133 or -0.74%)
The DAX chart is trending downwards with a significant drop from 17955 to 17822 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 18:00 – EUR Guindos Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 17866. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 17910, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 17955 and potentially 17977.
If we cannot close above 17779, we could see a move back to test 17735 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 17701, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17646.
US
S&P 500 – 4987 (-158 or -3.07%)
The US500 chart is trending downwards with a notable drop from 5145 to 4987 this week, indicating significant weakness.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 23:45 – USD Manufacturing PMI
Tue 23:45 – USD Services PMI
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Thur 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance
Thur 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5100. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5125, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5156 and potentially 5222.
If we cannot close above 4974, we could see a move back to test 4950 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4922, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4877.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6439 (-36 or -0.56%)
The AUDUSD chart is trending downwards with a moderate drop from 0.6475 to 0.6439 this week, indicating weakening.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:00 – AUD Bank Services PMI
Tue 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Wed 11:30 – AUD Inflation Rate
Tue 23:45 – USD Manufacturing PMI
Tue 23:45 – USD Services PMI
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Thur 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance
Thur 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6455. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6471, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6490 and potentially 0.6554.
If we cannot close above 0.6424, we could see a move back to test 0.6418 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6404, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6351.
EUR/USD – 1.0663 (+16 or +0.15%)
The EURUSD chart is trending upwards with a slight increase from 1.0647 to 1.0663 this week, indicating modest strength.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 18:00 – EUR Guindos Speech
Tue 23:45 – USD Manufacturing PMI
Tue 23:45 – USD Services PMI
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Thur 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance
Thur 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0690. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0716, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0741 and potentially 1.0794.
If we cannot close above 1.0634, we could see a move back to test 1.0608 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0578, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0518.
GBP/USD – 1.2383 (-77 or -0.62%)
The GBPUSD chart is trending downwards with a notable decline from 1.2460 to 1.2383 this week, indicating significant weakness.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – GBP Manufacturing PMI
Tue 18:30 – GBP Services PMI
Tue 23:45 – USD Manufacturing PMI
Tue 23:45 – USD Services PMI
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Thur 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance
Thur 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2414. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2438, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2462 and potentially 1.2510.
If we cannot close above 1.2350, we could see a move back to test 1.2326 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2294, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2244.
USD/JPY – 154.66 (+138 or +0.9%)
The USDJPY chart is trending upwards with a significant increase from 153.28 to 154.66 this week, indicating strong bullish momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 13:00 – JPY BOJ Interest Rate
Tue 23:45 – USD Manufacturing PMI
Tue 23:45 – USD Services PMI
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders
Thur 22:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate
Thur 22:30 – USD Goods Trade Balance
Thur 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
Fri 22:30 – USD Core PCE Price Index
Fri 22:30 – USD Personal Spending
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 155.03. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 155.41, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 155.80 and potentially 156.95.
If we cannot close above 154.69, we could see a move back to test 154.31 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 153.92, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 152.67.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2383 (+21 or +0.89%)
The price of GOLD is trending upwards with a moderate increase from 2362 to 2383 this week, suggesting steady bullish momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2439. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2489, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2538 and potentially 2680.
If we cannot close above 2330, we could see a move back to test 2280 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2231, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2089.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 64941 (-934 or -1.42%)
Bitcoin’s chart is trending downwards with a notable decrease from 65875 to 64941 this week, indicating slight weakness.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 65106. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 65317, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 65528 and potentially 66191.
If we cannot close above 64776, we could see a move back to test 64565 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 64354, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 63879.
