This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7748 (-51 or -0.65%)
The AU200 chart is trending slightly downward this week, with a small decrease from 7799 to 7748.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7767. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7799, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7829 and potentially 7899.
If we cannot close above 7730, we could see a move back to test 7701 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7671, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7602.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 17955(-296 or -1.62%)
The DAX chart is trending downward this week, with a notable decrease from 18251 to 17955.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR CPI
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18000. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18045, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18090 and potentially 18135.
If we cannot close above 17911, we could see a move back to test 17866 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 17821, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17776.
US
S&P 500 – 5145 (-65 or -1.25%)
The US500 chart is trending downward this week, with a significant decrease from 5210 to 5145.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5157. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5172, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5187 and potentially 5215.
If we cannot close above 5133, we could see a move back to test 5118 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5103, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5075.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6475 (-88 or -1.34%)
The AUDUSD chart is trending downward this week, with a notable decrease from 0.6563 to 0.6475.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thur 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate
Mon 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6489. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6504, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6519 and potentially 0.6544.
If we cannot close above 0.6457, we could see a move back to test 0.6442 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6427, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6400.
EUR/USD – 1.0647 (-178 or -1.64%)
The EURUSD chart is trending downward this week, with a significant decrease from 1.0825 to 1.0647.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR CPI
Mon 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0661. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0679, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0696 and potentially 1.0734.
If we cannot close above 1.0631, we could see a move back to test 1.0613 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0596, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0559.
GBP/USD – 1.2460 (-157 or -1.24%)
The GBPUSD chart is trending downward this week, with a notable decrease from 1.2617 to 1.2460.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:00 – GBP Unemployment Rate
Wed 16:00 – GBP Inflation Rate
Fri 16:00 – GBP Retail Sales
Mon 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2493. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2518, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2542 and potentially 1.2593.
If we cannot close above 1.2429, we could see a move back to test 1.2404 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2380, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2330.
USD/JPY – 153.28 (+158 or +1.04%)
The USDJPY chart is trending upward this week, with a notable increase from 151.70 to 153.28.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 09:50 – JPY Balance of Trade
Fri 09:30 – JPY Inflation Rate
Mon 22:30 – USD Retail Sales
Tue 23:30 – USD Building Permits
Thu 23:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 153.67. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 153.94, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 154.21 and potentially 154.84.
If we cannot close above 152.95, we could see a move back to test 152.68 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 152.41, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 151.78.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2362 (+56 or +2.43%)
The price of GOLD is trending upward this week, with a significant increase from 2306 to 2362.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2368. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2374, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2380 and potentially 2392.
If we cannot close above 2356, we could see a move back to test 2350 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2344, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2330.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 65875 (-3416 or -4.93%)
Bitcoin is trending downward this week, experiencing a notable decrease from 69291 to 65875.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 66041. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 66250, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 66438 and potentially 67015.
If we cannot close above 65710, we could see a move back to test 65501 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 65263, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 64686.
