This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7413 (+2 or +0.03%)
The ASX closed the week absolutely flat – our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 11:30 – CPI Q/q
Tues 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Weds 11:30 – Retail Sales
Thurs 11:30 – Trade Balance
Fri 09:00 – RBA Governor Lowe Speech
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7400. Should this occur, a move into 7500 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7600 and 7721.
Failure to hold above 7400 means a potential move back into 7272. 7202 is the next support level down if 7091 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 6969.
EUROPE
DAX – 15561 (-18 or -0.11%)
A muted and flat week for the DAX following on from the previous week’s volatility – levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 16:00 – Retail Sales
Mon 17:55 – Markit Manufacturing PMI
For the DAX to continue its move higher we would like to see it hold above 15500. Should this occur then 15800 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum really takes hold then 16000 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15500, we will look for a move into support at 15345. A strong break and close below this handle and 15050 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 14990 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4405 (-3 or -0.07%)
Like the previous two indices, the SPX was also quiet this week and our levels are unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thurs 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 4421. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4450, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves to 4500 and 4531.
If we cannot close above 4421, we could see this market move down into 4375. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4300, and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4250.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7343 (-20 or -0.27%)
A pause for the Aussie Dollar as it spent a week sideways.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Weds 11:30 – Retail Sales
Thurs 11:30 – Trade Balance
Fri 09:00 – RBA Governor Lowe Speech
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it close above 0.7423. We will then be targeting a move back into 0.7500 where we may see a pause. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7560.
If this market cannot close above 0.7423, we could see a move back down into 0.7343. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7250, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7065.
EUR/USD – 1.1869 (+148 or +1.26%)
The Euro caught a bid this week to take advantage of a slightly weaker USD – is the short term bottom now in?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1925. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.2000 before a pause. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2052; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2113 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1925., we could see a move into 1.1833. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1738, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1615.
GBP/USD – 1.3905 (+150 or +1.09%)
The Cable, spurred by easing Delta concerns in the U.K. as well as a weaker USD, enjoyed a strong week but is now facing key resistance.
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold 1.3865 before a break higher through 1.4000. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push back into 1.4125.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3865, we will look for a move down to 1.3755. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3666 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3620.
USD/JPY – 109.69 (-85 or -0.77%)
The Dollar-Yen continues to be indecisive with choppy intraday price action – we will discuss this further inside our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thurs 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market hold above 109.68. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 109.94, and if upside momentum is strong we could see a move higher into 110.38 and potentially 111.
If we cannot hold above 109.68, we could see a move back to test 109.21 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 107.81, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 107.05.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1814 (+13 or +0.72%)
A false breakout to end the week meant another flat week with a modest gain.
For a continued move higher we need to see this market hold above 1814. Should this occur we need to see a move through 1850; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1875. If momentum is really strong then 1905 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot hold above 1814, we will look for a move back down to 1800. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1756, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1720.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 41412 (+6947 or +20.16%)
Bitcoin bulls are back in the room and have pushed through key range resistance – is this market ready to take off from here?
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 40000. Should this occur we could see a move into 44000 before retesting 50000. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 55000.
Failure to hold above 40000 could see a move down to 35000. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 30000. A close below this level and 25000 can’t be ruled out.
