This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7364 (+40 or +0.55%)
The ASX edged higher but in truth it was another quiet week and our levels remain the same.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Tues 21:20 – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7310. Should this occur, a move above 7385 should be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7465 and 7555.
Failure to hold above 7310 means a potential move into 7215. 7135 is the next support level down if 7215 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7030.
EUROPE
DAX (40) – 15950 (+46 or +0.29%)
Like the ASX, the DAX also edged slightly higher but not enough for our levels to change.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 22:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thurs 22:45 – ECB Press Conference
For the DAX to move higher we would like to see it hold above 15820. Should this occur then 15970 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong then 16090 and 16270 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15820, we will look for a move into support at 15650. A strong break and close below this handle and 15515 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 15325 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4170 (+39 or +0.94%)
The SPX moved higher after a fightback from the bulls midweek… a retest of the yearly highs on the cards ahead of a big week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Weds 00:00 – JOLTS Jobs Openings
Thurs 00:00 – ISM Services PMI
Thurs 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement
Thurs 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thurs 22:30 – Unemployment Claims
Fri 22:30 – Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 4150. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4215; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 4320 and 4425.
If we cannot hold above 4150, we could see this market move down into 4095. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3965; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 3915.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6614 (-78 or -1.17%)
The Aussie Dollar is currently the weakest of the G10 currencies and is now threatening new yearly lows.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Tues 21:20 – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
For a move higher this week we would like to see it hold above 0.6585. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6670. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6715. Should momentum to the upside be really strong then 0.6825 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6585, we could see a move down into 0.6525. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6385, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6270.
EUR/USD – 1.1016 (+27 or +0.25%)
The Euro almost closed completely flat and is another market that sees levels remain the same.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thurs 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement
Thurs 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thurs 22:15 – ECB Interest Rate Decision
Thurs 22:45 – ECB Press Conference
Fri 22:30 – US Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move higher we would like to see the Euro hold above 1.0940. Should this occur we should see a move above 1.1115. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1215 and 1.1385.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.0940 we will see a move into 1.0760. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.0600, however any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.0470.
GBP/USD – 1.2566 (+125 or +1%)
The Cable closed at new highs for the year… Can it capitalise?
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2405 before a break higher into 1.2600. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push back into 1.2755 If upside momentum is really strong then a move back into 1.2975 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2405, we will look for a move down to 1.2275. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2145 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.1930.
USD/JPY – 136.27 (+215 or +1.6%)
A continued dovish BOJ led to Yen weakness on Friday and breakout of recent consolidation.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Weds 00:00 – JOLTS Jobs Openings
Thurs 00:00 – ISM Services PMI
Thurs 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement
Thurs 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thurs 22:30 – Unemployment Claims
Fri 22:30 – Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 134.50. Should this occur we will look for a move into 137.55, and if upside momentum is strong we could see a move higher into 139.10 and potentially 140.30.
If we cannot hold above 134.50, we could see a move back to test 132.50 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 131.40; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 129.50.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1989 (+7 or +0.35%)
Quiet week for Gold but will further issues with First Republic Bank lead to another spike?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Weds 00:00 – JOLTS Jobs Openings
Thurs 00:00 – ISM Services PMI
Thurs 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement
Thurs 04:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Thurs 22:30 – Unemployment Claims
Fri 22:30 – Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
For a move higher we need to see this market close above 2000. Should this occur we could see a move into 2014; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 2050. If momentum is strong then 2075 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 2000, we can see a move down to 1960. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1910; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1870.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 29667 (+2024 or +7.32%)
BTC found new support to print another higher low, further promising signs for bulls.
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 28000. Should this occur we could see a move into 31050 before retesting 32590. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 36850.
Failure to hold above 28000 could see a move into 25875. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 23675. A close below this level and 21715 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that.
