This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6564 ( -141 or -2.1%)
The start of the new month saw the bears come to the table. Will we see more of this behaviour this week? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6635. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6682. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6804, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 6850.
If the ASX cannot close above 6635, we will look for a move back down to 6544. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6500 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.
EUROPE
DAX – 12064 ( -265 or -2.15% )
The DAX was also weak last week however did manage to find support at a very key level. This will be a very important week for this market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close above 12198. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 12384 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12566 and 12750.
If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 11875. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11755 this week; and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move down to 11519.
US
SP500 – 2951 ( -15 or -0.51% )
Last week the US managed to recover after looking quite bearish early in the week. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 04:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Tue 23:30 – PPI (monthly)
Wed 04:50 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Thu 02:00 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Thu 05:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 23:30 – CPI (monthly)
Sat 01:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2960. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 2985. A strong break above this level however could see the S&P trade above 3003, and if momentum is very strong, we may see a big move into 3066.
If we cannot close above 2960, we could see this market retest 2941. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2902; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2885.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6765 ( +1 or +0.01% )
The Aussie Dollar has remained flat for the second straight week and we are watching this market for a breakout move this week. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6762. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6875, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6934 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6762, we will look for a retest of 0.6706. A break and close below this level sets the stage for a larger move down to 0.6598; and if momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.6457 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.0978 ( +37 or +0.34% )
The Euro managed to close last week higher however still remains beneath the 1.1000 level. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.0977; followed by a break back above 1.1033. Should this occur, we could then see a move to 1.1197 before a pause; and if momentum is very strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move into 1.1249.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.0977, we could see a move down into 1.0902 before a pause. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a sharp move down into 1.0814 by the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2333 ( +43 or +0.35% )
Cable is in a precarious position with the all-important Brexit date looming.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 15:10 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Thu 19:30 – GDP (monthly), Manufacturing Production (monthly)
Thu 20:20 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable hold above 1.2297 followed by a close above 1.2389. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2480, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a push higher into 1.2622.
If the Pound cannot hold above 1.2297, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.2195. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.2000, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a fast move down into 1.1896.
USD/JPY – 106.90 ( -103 or -0.95%)
The $/YEN continues to exhibit weakness but like other markets it too is at a very key level.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 106.52, on its way to retesting 107.25 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 107.75, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a move into 108.31.
If we cannot hold above 106.52, we could see a fast move lower into 105.50. A break below this level may result in a move down to 104.97. Any further breaks to the downside could see the $/YEN end up at 103.99 by the week’s end.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1504 ( +8 or +0.53% )
Gold remains in consolidation mode as we wait for the next leg of this market’s move. We will be discussing this market in detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1505. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1526 ; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1540 and 1552.
If Gold cannot close above 1505, we will look for a move back down into 1480. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1470, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1450.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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