This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6442 (-8 or -0.12%)
The ASX is once again under pressure as the bears continue to dampen any upside on this market. We will be discussing this again in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Construction Work Done (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Private Capital Expenditure (quarterly)
Fri 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6435. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6500, and above this 6550. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6670.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6435, we will look for a move back down to 6350 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6276, and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6180.
EUROPE
DAX – 11537 (-30 or -0.26%)
The DAX finished off the week slightly down and the big question now is- can this market hold its August lows?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Thu 17:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close strongly above the 11755 – 11790 area. Should this occur, we will look for a retest 11875. If momentum is very strong, a break and close above this level could see another push higher into 12054.
If the DAX fails to close above 11755, we will look for a move back down to 11362 before a potential pause. If this market continues to sell-off, a very strong move down into 11050 cannot be ruled out.
US
SP500 – 2852 (-39 or -1.35%)
Following China’s added tariffs on Friday, this week we look to what impact Trump’s added tariffs will have. We will again be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
Wed 00:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 22:30 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
Fri 22:30 – Personal Spending (monthly)
Fri 23:45 – Chicago PMI
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2902. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 2922, and potentially 2941 again before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 2960 and 2985.
If we cannot close above 2902, we could see this market retest 2838. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2812; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a very sharp move down into 2800 and 2785.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6749 (-27 or -0.4%)
The Aussie Dollar remained flat for yet another consecutive week and we are now on alert for a breakout move. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Construction Work Done (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Private Capital Expenditure (quarterly)
Fri 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6762. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6875, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6934 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.6762, we will look for a retest of 0.6706. A break and close below this level sets the stage for a larger move down to 0.6598; and if momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.6457 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.1142 (+53 or +0.48%)
The Euro found itself basing last week before a big recovery on Friday. The question is- can this market hold or will we see a big surprise on open this week? We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Thu 17:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
Fri 19:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1197 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1249 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1335 before a further pause.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1197, we could see a bigger push down into 1.1033 before a pause. A strong break of this level may however result in a fast move down into 1.0977 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2146 (+137 or +1.13%)
Like the Euro, the Pound again managed to find some support last week. But it is now up against some key resistance. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in the UK (Summer Bank Holiday)
For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable close above 1.2297. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2389, and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2480
If the Pound cannot close above 1.2297, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.2195. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.2000, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a fast move down into 1.1896.
USD/JPY – 105.40 (-96 or -0.9%)
As we mentioned in Friday’s LIVE TV, the $/YEN is under severe pressure and Friday’s action early on in the day looked very bearish.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 105.50, on its way to retesting 106.52 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 107.25, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 107.75 and 108.31.
If we cannot close above 105.50, we could see a fast move lower into 104.97. A break below this level may result in a very sharp move down to 103.99. Any further breaks to the downside could see the $/YEN end up at 103.21by the week’s end.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1526 (+14 or +0.93%)
Gold continues to be well supported with a move into one of our key levels- 1526. With more news this week we could see this market continue to break higher. We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1526. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1540 and 1552; and if momentum remains very strong, we cannot rule out moves to 1570 and 1605.
If Gold cannot close above 1526, we will look for a move back down into 1505. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1480, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1470.
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