This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6291 ( +77 or +1.24% )
The ASX has again broken out to new multi-year highs as we approach some key major levels. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6276. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6345, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6440.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6276, we will look for a move back down to 6206 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6140, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6070.
EUROPE
DAX – 12498 ( +214 or +1.74% )
The DAX rallied strong last week following much better than expected factory orders.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12384 followed by a move into 12566. A break of this level could then result into a quick move into 12640; followed by continuation into 12714. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 12830.
If the DAX fails to close and hold above 12384, we expect to see a move back down into 12198 before a pause. A break below this level however means we may see more selling into 12115; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a sharp move into 12044.
US
SP500 – 2761 ( +43 or +1.58% )
Traders returned from the 4th July holiday as we saw the S&P rally into the close of the week. Whilst NFP numbers were not very strong, the market liked the print. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – PPI (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close and hold above 2760. Should this occur we could see another retest of 2785, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a moves to 2802 and 2808.
If we cannot hold above 2760, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2736 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2704; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2680 and 2660.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7427 ( +21 or +0.28% )
The Aussie Dollar has found some buyers but again continues to consolidate. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
For a move higher we would like to see the AUD close above 0.7447, followed by a break and close above 0.7489. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7561 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move into 0.7617.
If we cannot close above 0.7447, we will look for a move back down to 0.7364. A strong break below this level may result in a move back down into 0.7282 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7229.
EUR/USD – 1.1743 ( +58 or +0.5% )
The Euro remains range bound for yet another week as we enter a very important 2-week window for this market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Tue 19:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1738 this week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1822; whilst a strong break above this level may see a run into the big figure at 1.2000.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1738, we could see a fast move down into 1.1613. A break below this could be followed by another quick move into 1.1496; and should momentum remain strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1453.
GBP/USD – 1.3282 ( +77 or +0.58% )
Last week we outlined important upcoming Brexit events in our Monthly Newsletter and we are now watching this market very closely.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – GDP (monthly)
Tue 18:30 – Manufacturing Production (monthly)
Tue 18:30 – Goods Trade Balance
Thu 01:35 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Thu 18:30 – BoE Credit Conditions Survey
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3309. Should this occur we will look for the Pound to rally into 1.3534 before a pause; however a strong break of this level could see a retest of 1.3875.
If we cannot close above 1.3309, we will look for a quick move down into 1.3111. A break of this level may result in a retest of 1.3035; however any subsequent break could see this market sell-off quickly into 1.2868. Should the downside momentum continue, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 110.46 ( -23 or -0.21% )
Nothing has changed on the $/YEN over the past week as it continues to hover between the key 110 – 111 levels. As such our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:30 – BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close strongly through 111.09. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 111.73, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 112.68 cannot be ruled out.
If we cannot close above 111.09, we will look for another quick retest of 109.94. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 109.21, and if the downside remains strong we could see a strong sell-off into 108.31.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1254 ( +2 or +0.16% )
GOLD managed to close the week higher after selling off early and aggressively at the start of the week.
For a continued move higher we would like to see this market close above 1260. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1276-1278 before a pause. A strong break above 1278 may likely result in a move to 1285; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out a move to 1294..
If Gold cannot close above 1260, we will look for a move back down to 1245. A break below this level however could result in a very sharp move down to 1238, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1222.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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