This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
IINDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8812 (+123 or +1.42%)
AU200 is trending strongly higher this week, posting a solid gain and showing clear bullish momentum from last week’s levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Jul)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8,834. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8,856, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8,878 and potentially 8,922.
If we cannot close above 8,790, we could see a move back to test 8,768 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8,746, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8,702.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 24214 (-180 or -0.74%)
DAX is showing mild weakness this week, slipping lower from last week’s levels and signaling a cautious short-term outlook.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug)
Thu 19:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q2)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 24,275. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 24,336, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 24,397 and potentially 24,517.
If we cannot close above 24,153, we could see a move back to test 24,092 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 24,031, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 23,911.
US
S&P 500 – 6390 (-24 or -0.37%)
US500 edges lower this week, showing slight weakness and hinting at a possible pause or consolidation in momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/09)
Fri 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 6,406. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 6,422, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 6,438 and potentially 6,469.
If we cannot close above 6,374, we could see a move back to test 6,358 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 6,342, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6,311.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6517 (-56 or -0.85%)
AUDUSD continues to weaken, sliding further from last week’s levels and signaling sustained downside pressure in the short term.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 11:30 – AUD Employment Change (Jul)
Thu 11:30 – AUD Unemployment Rate (Jul)
Tue 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/09)
Fri 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6533. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6549, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6564 and potentially 0.6598.
If we cannot close above 0.6501, we could see a move back to test 0.6485 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6470, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6436.
EUR/USD – 1.1648 (-112 or -0.95%)
EURUSD is trending lower, posting a notable drop from last week and hinting at increased bearish momentum ahead.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Tue 19:00 – EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug)
Thu 19:00 – EUR Employment Change YoY (Q2)
Tue 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/09)
Fri 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.1677. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.1706, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.1735 and potentially 1.1794.
If we cannot close above 1.1619, we could see a move back to test 1.1590 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.1561, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.1502.
GBP/USD – 1.3444 (+3 or +0.02%)
GBPUSD remains flat this week, showing virtually no change and indicating a balanced market without clear directional momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 09:01 – GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jul)
Thu 16:00 – GBP GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Thu 16:00 – GBP GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2)
Tue 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/09)
Fri 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.3477. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.3510, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.3543 and potentially 1.3611.
If we cannot close above 1.3410, we could see a move back to test 1.3377 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.3344, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.3276.
USD/JPY – 147.65 (-16 or -0.11%)
USDJPY dips slightly this week, reflecting mild weakness but still holding within a relatively stable short-term trading range.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 09:50 – JPY GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Fri 09:50 – JPY GDP Growth Annualized (Q2)
Tue 22:30 – USD Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/09)
Fri 22:30 – USD Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 148.02. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.39, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 148.76 and potentially 149.49.
If we cannot close above 147.28, we could see a move back to test 146.91 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.54, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 145.81.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3393 (+62 or +1.86%)
Gold surges strongly this week, breaking higher with solid momentum and signaling bullish strength toward potential further upside targets.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3,401. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3,410, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3,415 and potentially 3,435.
If we cannot close above 3,384, we could see a move back to test 3,375 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3,370, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3,350.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 119121 (-176 or -0.15%)
Bitcoin holds steady this week, showing only a slight dip and maintaining its broader consolidation within recent trading ranges.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 119,419. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 119,717, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 120,015 and potentially 120,609.
If we cannot close above 118,823, we could see a move back to test 118,525 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 118,227, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 117,633.
