This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 8189 (+216 or +2.71%)
AU200 surged over 2.7% this week — strong upward momentum and a clear bullish breakout from last week’s levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
Tue 11:30 – AUD Building Permits MoM (Mar)
Wed 09:00 – AUD Ai Group Industry Index (Apr)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 8209. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 8230, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8251 and potentially 8289.
If we cannot close above 8169, we could see a move back to test 8148 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 8127, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 8059.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 23017 (+678 or +3.04%)
DE30 rallies over 3% this week — strong bullish momentum with buyers firmly in control and potential for continued upside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – EUR Unemployment Change (Apr)
Tue 17:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
Thu 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Mar)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 23074. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 23132, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 23189 and potentially 23294.
If we cannot close above 22959, we could see a move back to test 22902 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 22844, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 22630.
US
S&P 500 – 5644 (+119 or +2.15%)
US500 climbs over 2% — steady upward trend gaining traction, signaling renewed buying interest and potential for higher highs.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Apr)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5658. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5672, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5686 and potentially 5714.
If we cannot close above 5629, we could see a move back to test 5615 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5601, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5558.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6465 (+35 or +0.54%)
AUD/USD edges higher this week — modest upward movement suggesting cautious bullish sentiment, but momentum remains limited for now.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 09:00 – AUD S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
Tue 11:30 – AUD Building Permits MoM (Mar)
Wed 09:00 – AUD Ai Group Industry Index (Apr)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Apr)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6315. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6331, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6347 and potentially 0.6378.
If we cannot close above 0.6284, we could see a move back to test 0.6268 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6252, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6221.
EUR/USD – 1.1343 (-70 or -0.61%)
EUR/USD slips lower — moderate downside move signals bearish pressure returning after recent highs, with sellers starting to regain control.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – EUR Unemployment Change (Apr)
Tue 17:15 – EUR HCOB Services PMI (Apr)
Thu 16:00 – EUR Balance of Trade (Mar)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Apr)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.137. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.140, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.143 and potentially 1.148.
If we cannot close above 1.131, we could see a move back to test 1.128 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.125, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.119.
GBP/USD – 1.3293 (-144 or -1.07%)
GBP/USD drops over 1% — clear bearish momentum building as sellers push price below recent support, signaling potential for further downside.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 18:30 – GBP S&P Global Services PMI (Apr)
Thu 21:00 – GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision
Thu 21:00 – GBP BoE Monetary Policy Report
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Apr)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.332. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.336, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.339 and potentially 1.346.
If we cannot close above 1.326, we could see a move back to test 1.322 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.319, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.312.
USD/JPY – 144.12 (+194 or +1.36%)
USD/JPY jumps strongly — over 1% weekly gain highlights bullish momentum and renewed demand for USD against the yen.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 09:50 – JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Fri 09:30 – JPY Household Spending YoY (Mar)
Mon (May 12) 09:50 – JPY Current Account (Mar)
Tue 00:00 – USD ISM Services PMI (Apr)
Thu 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 144.48. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 144.84, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 145.20 and potentially 145.92.
If we cannot close above 143.76, we could see a move back to test 143.40 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 143.04, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 142.32.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 3256 (-73 or -2.19%)
Gold pulls back sharply — over 2% drop signals strong bearish momentum as sellers take control after recent highs.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 3264. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 3272, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 3280 and potentially 3306.
If we cannot close above 3247, we could see a move back to test 3239 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 3231, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 3205.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 94113 (-73 or -0.08%)
Bitcoin holds steady — minor dip shows consolidation, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control heading into the new week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 94348. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 94584, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 94819 and potentially 95290.
If we cannot close above 93877, we could see a move back to test 93642 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 93406, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 92835.
