This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7783 (-16 or -0.21%)
The AU200 has shown a slight decline from 7799 to 7783 this week, indicating a minor downward trend.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (May)
Thu 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jun)
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (May)
Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (May)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7802. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7822, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 7841 and potentially 7876.
If we cannot close above 7802, we could see a move back to test 7764 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7745, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7686.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18523 (-173 or -0.93%)
The DAX is trending downward with a significant drop from 18696 to 18523 this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 19:00 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
Fri 19:00 – EUR ECB Guindos Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18569. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18615, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18661 and potentially 18754.
If we cannot close above 18569, we could see a move back to test 18432 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18385, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 18261.
US
S&P 500 – 5364 (+59 or +1.11%)
The US500 is trending upward with a notable rise from 5305 to 5364 this week, indicating strong momentum.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – CPI s.a (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – CPI (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections
Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/01)
Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5377. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5391, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5404 and potentially 5431.
If we cannot close above 5377, we could see a move back to test 5337 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5324, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5256.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6602 (-34 or -0.51%)
The AUDUSD is trending downward, dropping from 0.6636 to 0.6602 this week, indicating a moderate decline.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence (May)
Thu 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Jun)
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate (May)
Thu 11:30 – Employment Change (May)
Wed 22:30 – CPI s.a (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – CPI (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections
Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/01)
Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6664. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6682, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6699 and potentially 0.6723.
If we cannot close above 0.6631, we could see a move back to test 0.6613 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6596, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6572.
EUR/USD – 1.0762 (-86 or -0.79%)
The EURUSD has climbed significantly, rising 108 pips from 1.0741 to 1.0849, indicating a strong upward trend in the chart.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 23:00 – ECB Guindos Speech
Fri 19:00 – ECB Guindos Speech
Wed 22:30 – CPI s.a (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – CPI (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections
Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/01)
Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0788. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0815, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0839 and potentially 1.0891.
If we cannot close above 1.0735, we could see a move back to test 1.0709 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0679, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0687.
GBP/USD – 1.2727 (-15 or -0.12%)
The GBPUSD is trending downward, slipping from 1.2742 to 1.2727 this week, indicating a slight decline in value.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – CPI s.a (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – CPI (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections
Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/01)
Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2759. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2786, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2813 and potentially 1.2884.
If we cannot close above 1.2693, we could see a move back to test 1.2664 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2639, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2566.
USD/JPY – 157.17 (+39 or +0.25%)
The USDJPY is trending upward, rising from 156.78 to 157.17 this week, indicating a moderate increase in value.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – CPI s.a (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – CPI (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate MoM (May)
Wed 22:30 – Core Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Wed 22:30 – Inflation Rate YoY (May)
Thu 04:00 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thu 04:00 – FOMC Economic Projections
Thu 04:30 – Fed Press Conference
Thu 22:30 – Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/01)
Thu 22:30 – Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Jun/08)
Thu 22:30 – PPI MoM (May)
Sat 00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun)
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.54. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157.84, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 158.14 and potentially 158.96.
If we cannot close above 156.99, we could see a move back to test 156.59 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 156.23, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 155.21.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2311 (-32 or -1.37% )
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2316. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2321, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2327 and potentially 2340.
If we cannot close above 2305, we could see a move back to test 2300 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2293, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2263.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 69455 (+702 or +1.02%)
Bitcoin is displaying a strong upward trend with a significant move from 66187 to 68753 this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 68922. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 69114, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 69306 and potentially 69689.
If we cannot close above 68584, we could see a move back to test 68392 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 68199, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 67815.
