This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7666 (+44 or +0.58%)
The AU200 chart is trending slightly upwards, with a modest increase of 44 points over the week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7834. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7950, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8074 and potentially 8258.
If we cannot close above 7834, we could see a move back to test 7722 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7600, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 7450.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 18073 (-187 or -1.02%)
The DAX chart is trending downwards, with a decrease of 187 points from last week to this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – EUR PMI
Tue 19:00 – EUR Retails Sales
Thu 22:15 – EUR Guindos Speech
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 18306. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18392, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 18478 and potentially 18603.
If we cannot close above 18215, we could see a move back to test 18129 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 18044, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 17843.
US
S&P 500 – 5135 (+21 or +0.41%)
The US500 chart is trending upwards, with a gain of 21 points from last week to this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5148. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5161, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5174 and potentially 5206.
If we cannot close above 5148, we could see a move back to test 5133 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 5120, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 5080.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6608 (+61 or +0.93%)
The AUDUSD chart is trending upwards, with a significant increase of 61 pips from last week to this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Tue 14:30 – AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.6624. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.6639, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.6654 and potentially 0.6685.
If we cannot close above 0.6624, we could see a move back to test 0.6599 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.6584, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.6553.
EUR/USD – 1.0760 (+52 or +0.49%)
The EURUSD chart is trending upwards, with a notable increase of 52 pips from last week to this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:00 – EUR PMI
Tue 19:00 – EUR Retails Sales
Thu 22:15 – EUR Guindos Speech
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.0785. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.0805, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.0825 and potentially 1.0875.
If we cannot close above 1.0785, we could see a move back to test 1.0755 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.0735, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.0685.
GBP/USD – 1.2546 (+32 or +0.26%)
The GBPUSD chart is trending slightly upwards, indicating a modest strengthening of the British pound against the US dollar.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2580. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2615, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2645 and potentially 1.2710.
If we cannot close above 1.2515, we could see a move back to test 1.2480 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2445, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2375.
USD/JPY – 153.60 (-469 or -2.96%)
The USDJPY chart is trending sharply downwards, indicating a significant weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – USD Jobless Claims
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 157.22. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 158.84, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160.46 and potentially 163.70.
If we cannot close above 157.17, we could see a move back to test 155.55 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 153.93, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 150.69.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2294 (-33 or -1.42%)
The GOLD chart is trending downwards, indicating a decline in price from 2327 to 2294 this week.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2299. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2309, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2319 and potentially 2326.
If we cannot close above 2293, we could see a move back to test 2284 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 2275, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 2263.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 64234 (+1084 or +1.72%)
The Bitcoin chart is trending upwards, with a notable increase from 63150 to 64234 this week, indicating bullish momentum.
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 64399. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 64564, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 64730 and potentially 65042.
If we cannot close above 64171, we could see a move back to test 64006 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 63792, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 63479.
