Market Brief


Nvidia Boosts Equities, USD Outlook.

Is the recent US dollar downturn temporary amidst emerging trends in major currencies?

Read below what our desk thinks, and the important levels to watch this week.

This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.

Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 7650 (-23 or -0.3%)

The AU200 has found resistance at its all time highs.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI

Thur 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales

Fri 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 7830. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 7965, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 8099 and potentially 8339.

If we cannot close above 7466, we could see a move back to test 7331 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 7196, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 6936.

EUROPE

DAX (30) – 17401(+336 or +1.97%)

The DAX is up 2% over the past week, showing a big breakout above it’s all time high area.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate

Fri 21:00 – EUR CPI

Fri 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 17844. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 18607, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 19371 and potentially 21513.

If we cannot close above 16958, we could see a move back to test 16195 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 15431, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 13589.

US

S&P 500 – 5085 (+86 or +1.72%)

After breaking the milestone level of $5,000 the US500 has seen a breakout.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales

Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods

Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance

Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate

Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 5201. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 5338, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 5475 and potentially 5644.

If we cannot close above 4974, we could see a move back to test 4847 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 4710, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 4473.

FOREX

AUD/USD – 0.6563(+31 or +0.47%)

With high impact news for USD this week, will the AUDUSD hold its ground?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI

Thur 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales

Fri 09:00 – AUD Bank Manufacturing PMI

Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales

Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods

Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance

Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate

Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 0.658. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 0.662, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 0.665 and potentially 0.673.

If we cannot close above 0.654, we could see a move back to test 0.650 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 0.645, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 0.638.

EUR/USD – 1.0818 (+39 or +0.36%)

EURUSD is slightly up for the past week with a notable rejection on Thursday.  Will the Bears be able to continue the move?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 21:00 – EUR Inflation Rate

Fri 21:00 – EUR CPI

Fri 21:00 – EUR Unemployment Rate

Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales

Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods

Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance

Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate

Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.084. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.087, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.090 and potentially 1.097.

If we cannot close above 1.079, we could see a move back to test 1.074 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.069, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.062.

GBP/USD – 1.2670 (+67 or +0.53%)

GBPUSD has formed an interesting flat resistance area at 1.280. Will this level hold the line?

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Fri 20:30 – GBP Manufacturing PMI

Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales

Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods

Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance

Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate

Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 1.2700. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 1.2740, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 1.2790 and potentially 1.2880.

If we cannot close above 1.2630, we could see a move back to test 1.2580 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1.2510, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1.2370.

USD/JPY – 150.45 (+40 or +0.27%)

USDJPY is moving higher each week, will the momentum break into multi year highs? 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:

Tue 10:30 – JPY Inflation Rate

Fir 16:00 – JPY Consumer Confidence

Tue 02:00 – USD New Home Sales

Wed 00:30 – USD Durable Goods

Thur 00:30 – USD Trade Balance

Thur 00:30 – USD GDP Growth Rate

Fri 00:30 – USD Jobless Claims

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 154. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 157, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 160 and potentially 166.

If we cannot close above 147, we could see a move back to test 144 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 141, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 135.

COMMODITIES

GOLD – 2035 (+22 or +1.09%)

Gold is holding above the $2,000 level.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 2085. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 2135, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 2185 and potentially 2285.

If we cannot close above 1985, we could see a move back to test 1935 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 1885, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 1785.

CRYPTOS

BITCOIN – 51860 (-420 or -0.8%)

Bitcoin is slightly down this week while holding above the $50,000 level.

For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 53245. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 54730, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 56215 and potentially 58475.

If we cannot close above 50475, we could see a move back to test 48990 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 47505, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 45045.

DISCLAIMER

The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, hold or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.

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