This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up-to-the-minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7023 (-213 or -2.94%)
The ASX has seen over a 2% decline this past week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thu 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
For a move higher, we would like to see the ASX close above 7023. Should this occur, a move above 7112 should be expected, and if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 7196 and 7221.
Failure to close above 7023 means a potential move into 6991. 6854 is the next support level down if 6775 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 6717.
EUROPE
DAX (30) – 15502 (-398 or -2.5%)
The DAX has continued to move sideways.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – EUR Consumer Confidence
Thur 22:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Fri 16:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate
For the DAX to move higher, we would like to see it close above 15500. Should this occur, then 15600 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong, then 15791 and 16000 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15500, we will look for a move into support at 15396. A strong break and close below this handle and 15243 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts, then 15087 cannot be ruled out.
S&P 500 – 4323 (-138 or -3.09%)
The SPX is down over 3% this week, breaking its previous lows. Could this be the change in direction?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 06:00 – USD Fed Powell Speech
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 4300. Should this occur, we will look for a move through 4412. And if momentum is strong, we cannot rule out moves to 4480 and 4518.
If we cannot hold above 4300, we could see this market move down into 4245 A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 4144. And if momentum to the downside remains strong, we may see a fast move back down to 4118.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6442 (+0 or +0.0%)
The AUDUSD has closed its week at the same level as last week, our remain the same.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – AUD CPI
Thu 11:30 – AUD Retail Sales
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 06:00 – USD Fed Powell Speech
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it hold above 0.6442. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6457. If we see a strong break and close above this level, then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6500. Should momentum to the upside be really strong, then 0.6550 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6442 we could see a move down to 0.6377. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6327, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6274.
EUR/USD – 1.0649 (-15 or -0.14%)
The EURUSD has continued to move lower keeping to its downtrend for over 60 days.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 16:00 – EUR Consumer Confidence
Thur 22:00 – EUR Inflation Rate
Fri 16:00 – EUR Retail Sales
Fri 17:55 – EUR Unemployment Rate
Wed 00:00 – USD New Home Sales
Wed 22:30 – USD Durable Goods Orders
Thu 22:30 – USD Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 06:00 – USD Fed Powell Speech
For a move higher, we would like to see the Euro close above 1.0664. Should this occur, we should see a move above 1.0750. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.0800 and 1.0940.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.0664, we will see a move into 1.063. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.057, however, any weakness below this level could see a move into 1.051.
GBP/USD – 1.2246 (-144 or -1.16%)
GBPUSD has continued to move lower this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thur 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2243 before a break higher into 1.2346. If this market can see a strong close above this level, we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2433. If upside momentum is really strong, then a move back into 1.2485 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2243, we will look for a move down to 1.2176. A break below this level, however, could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2129 by the week’s end. And if momentum is very weak, we cannot rule out a move to 1.2000.
USD/JPY – 148.35 (+64 or +0.43%)
The USDJPY closed slightly higher this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 22:30 – USD Building Permits
Thur 04:00 – USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thur 04:30 – USD Fed Press Conference
Fri 00:00 – USD Existing Home Sales
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market close above 148.35. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 148.92, and if the upside momentum is strong, we could see a move higher into 150.13 and potentially 151.
If we cannot close above 148.35, we could see a move back to test 147.59 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 146.09, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 144.79.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1924 (-4 or -0.21%)
GOLD is slightly down this week.
For a move higher, we need to see this market close above 1919. Should this occur we could see a move into 1926; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1944. If momentum is strong, then 1981 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1919, we can see a move down to 1892. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1866 and if momentum is very strong to the downside, we could see a move to 1856.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 26642 (-355 or -1.33%)
Bitcoin is moving sideways.
For a move higher, we must now see this market close above 26000. Should this occur, we could see a move into 27000 before retesting 28000. If the upside momentum is really strong, then we can’t rule out 30000.
Failure to close above 26000 could see a move into 25000. If selling pressure takes control, then we could see a move down to 23000. A close below this level and 22000 can’t be ruled out. 20000 is the more psychological handle below that.
