This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7253 (+76 or +1.06%)
The ASX is back to making weekly gains after ticking slightly lower the week prior.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:00 – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
Fri 13:40 – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7240. Should this occur, a move into 7300 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7350 and 7440.
Failure to hold above 7240 means a potential move into 7140. 7020 is the next support level down if 7140 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see another leg down into 7020.
EUROPE
DAX – 14547 (+104 or +0.72%)
The DAX continues to tick higher, though a big area of resistance looms.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 19:15 – French and German Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI
For the DAX to move higher we would like to see it hold above 14265. Should this occur then 14710 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong then 14915 and 15050 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 14265, we will look for a move into support at 13970. A strong break and close below this handle and 13565 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 13375 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4027 (+62 or +1.56%)
The SPX also moves higher and bulls will want to push it through the long-term trend resistance from here.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thurs 02:00 – Jolts Jobs Openings
Thurs 05:30 – Fed Chair Powell speaks
Sat 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3965. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4095; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 4145 and 4215.
If we cannot hold above 3965, we could see this market move down into 3915. A break of this level, however, may result in a quick move down to 3840; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 3740.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6750 (+80 or +1.2%)
A positive week for the Aussie Dollar as the correlation with equities remains high.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 10:00 – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
Fri 13:40 – RBA Gov Lowe speaks
For a move higher this week we would like to see it hold above 0.6715. We will then be targeting a move through 0.6830. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.6915. Should momentum to the upside be really strong then 0.6960 could be targeted.
If this market cannot hold above 0.6715, we could see a move down into 0.6670. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.6580, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.6485.
EUR/USD – 1.0322 (+71 or +0.69%)
Despite a move lower on Friday the Euro was able to bounce off a key support level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sat 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
For a move higher we would like to see the Euro close above 1.0355. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.0470. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.0600 and 1.0760.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.0355, we will see a move into 1.0215. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.0070, however any weakness below this level could see a move into parity at 1.000.
GBP/USD – 1.2091 (+209 or +1.76%)
TThe GBP continues to outperform its peers and secured a strong weekly close above the previous weekly high.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 02:00 – BOE Gov Bailey speaks
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.1930 before a break higher into 1.2145. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong pushback into 1.2275 If upside momentum is really strong then a move back into 1.2400 can’t be ruled out.
Should we fail to hold above 1.1930, we will look for a move down to 1.1740. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.1610 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.1490.
USD/JPY – 139.12 (-124 or -0.88%)
USD sellers re-emerged, with the Dollar Yen reversing off a key overhead level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Weds 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thurs 02:00 – Jolts Jobs Openings
Thurs 05:30 – Fed Chair Powell speaks
Sat 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 139.25. Should this occur we will look for a move into 140, and if upside momentum is strong we could see a move higher into 142 and potentially 143.25.
If we cannot hold above 139.25, we could see a move back to test 137.70 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 135.60; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 134.50..
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1754 (+4 or +0.23%)
Gold closed flat for the week and as such our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Sat 00:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
For a move higher we need to see this market close above 1765. Should this occur we could see a move into 1785; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1805. If momentum is strong then 1830 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot close above 1765, we need to see it hold at 1735. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1720; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1695.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 16521 (+10 or +0.06%)
Another eerily quiet week for BTC sees it almost flat week to week – our levels remain the same.
For a move higher we must now see this market close above 17510. Should this occur we could see a move into 18700 before retesting 20000. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 21715.
Failure to close above 17510 could see a move into 15515. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 14000. A close below this level and 12325 can’t be ruled out, maybe even a 10650 print.
