This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7564 (+151 or +2.04%)
The ASX sparked back into life and managed to close the week at new all-time highs – clear skies lie ahead!
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
For a continued move higher we would like to see the ASX hold above 7500. Should this occur, a move into 7600 could be expected; and if momentum is strong we cannot rule out moves to 7721 and 7750.
Failure to hold above 7500 means a potential move back into 7400. 7272 is the next support level down if 7202 doesn’t hold. If downside momentum is really strong then we could see a sharp move to 7091.
EUROPE
DAX – 15785 (+124 or +0.79%)
The DAX took advantage of strong U.S. markets to break all-time highs on Friday but still doesn’t look so convincing.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 19:05 – ZEW Economic Indicator
Weds 16:00 – CPI M/m
For the DAX to continue its move higher we would like to see it hold above 15800. Should this occur then 16000 is the next level ahead. If upside momentum is strong then 16157 cannot be ruled out.
To the downside, should we not see it hold above 15800, we will look for a move into support at 15500. A strong break and close below this handle and 15345 is the next level down. If downside pressure mounts then 15050 cannot be ruled out.
US
S&P 500 – 4439 (+34 or +0.77%)
Another weekly close at all-time highs despite the surge in Delta across the U.S. as a strong job report on Friday helped ease investors fears.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 00:00 – Jolts Jobs Openings
Tues 22:30 – Core CPI M/m & Y/y
Thurs 22:30 – Core PPI M/m & Y/y
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 4425. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 4450, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out moves to 4500 and 4531.
If we cannot hold above 4425, we could see this market move down into 4375. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 4300, and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move back down to 4250.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7353 (+10 or +0.14%)
Another choppy week for the Aussie Dollar as it closes flat – our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
For a move higher this week, we would like to see it close above 0.7423. We will then be targeting a move back into 0.7500 where we may see a pause. If we see a strong break and close above this level then we can’t rule out a move to 0.7560.
If this market cannot close above 0.7423, we could see a move back down into 0.7343. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 0.7250, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 0.7065.
EUR/USD – 1.1760 (-110 or -0.93%)
The Euro caught a bid this week to take advantage of a slightly weaker USD – is the short term bottom now in?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Aggressive selling post NFP saw the Euro erase all of its previous weekly gains and is now set to retest the recent lows.
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1833. Should this occur we could see a move into 1.1925 before a pause. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.2000; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2052 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1833, we could see a move into 1.1738. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1615, however, any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1500.
GBP/USD – 1.3873 (-32 or -0.23%)
Overall a flat week for the Cable and our levels are unchanged.
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold 1.3865 before a break higher through 1.4000. If this market can see a strong close above this level we may then see a strong push back into 1.4125.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3865, we will look for a move down to 1.3755. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.3666 by the week’s end and if momentum is very weak we cannot rule out a move to 1.3620.
USD/JPY – 110.22 (+53 or +0.48%)
The Dollar-Yen continues to be indecisive with choppy intraday price action – we will discuss this further inside our LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tues 00:00 – Jolts Jobs Openings
Tues 22:30 – Core CPI M/m & Y/y
Thurs 22:30 – Core PPI M/m & Y/y
For a move to the upside, we must now see this market hold above 109.94. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 110.38, and if upside momentum is strong we could see a move higher into 111 and potentially 111.70.
If we cannot hold above 109.94, we could see a move back to test 109.68 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 109.21, and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 107.81.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1763 (-51 or -2.81%)
Gold suffered the most following the strong NFP report with an aggressive sell off on Friday, can the bulls salvage another revival from here?
For a continued move higher we need to see this market hold above 1756. Should this occur we need to see a move through 1786; and any break of this level could see a stronger move into 1800. If momentum is really strong then 1814 cannot be ruled out.
If Gold cannot hold above 1756, we will look for a move back down to 1740. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1720; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1678.
CRYPTOS
BITCOIN – 44228 (+2816 or +6.8%)
A strong close above the key 40k level and this market looks to have got the upside breakout bulls have been searching for.
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 40000. Should this occur we could see a move into 44000 before retesting 50000. If upside momentum is really strong then we can’t rule out 55000.
Failure to hold above 40000 could see a move down to 35000. If selling pressure takes control then we could see a move down to 30000. A close below this level and 25000 can’t be ruled out.
