This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6207 ( +252 or +4.23% )
The ASX recovered significantly having found continued support last week.
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6206 followed by a push into 6250. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6266, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345 and 6434.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6206, we will look for a move back down to 6140 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6000, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5980.
EUROPE
DAX – 12481 ( +897 or +7.74% )
The DAX was one of the week’s best gainers posting one of it’s best weeks in a long time. This week may prove to be another crucial week for this market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:25 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Fri 15:45 – ECB President Largarde Speaks
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12566 on its way to 12714. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 12921, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13100.
If the DAX fails to close above 12566, we may see a move back down into the key level of 12350. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12266; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a fast and sharp move down into 12050.
US
SP500 – 3516 ( +230 or +7% )
The US has a new president and the S&P has responded accordingly. We will be discussing the impact of this this week in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
NOTE: Thursday is a public holiday in the US (Veterans Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 00:30 – CPI (monthly)
Fri 15:45 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Sat 00:30 – PPI (monthly)
Sat 02:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3498. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3560. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3620; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3650.
If we cannot hold above 3498, we could see this market move lower into 3395. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3300; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3274 and 3210.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7260 ( +234 or +3.33% )
The Aussie Dollar managed to rally strongly last week with the markets presenting a heightened appetite for risk.
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7282. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7364, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7447 and 0.7489 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.7282, we will look for this market to break lower through 0.7197. A break and close below this level could see a sharp decline into 0.7112; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.7014.
EUR/USD – 1.1875 ( +230 or +1.98% )
The Euro was also very strong last week as this currency eyes the big 1.2000 level again.
NOTE: Wednesday is a public holiday in France (Armistice Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:25 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Fri 15:45 – ECB President Largarde Speaks
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1834. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.1925. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1950; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2042 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1834, we could see a fast move down into 1.1738 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1678, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1613 and 1.1553.
GBP/USD – 1.3149 ( +201 or +1.55% )
Despite a positive showing, Cable remains range bound and we are again on high alert for a breakout this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 21:35 – BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
Thu 18:00 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
Thu 19:00 – BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
Fri 03:45 – BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
Sat 03:00 – BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3035, followed by a retest into 1.3161 before a pause. If however momentum is very strong we may see a strong push into 1.3277.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3035, we could see a move back down to 1.2867. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2720 by the week’s end.
USD/JPY – 103.36 ( -131 or -1.25% )
The $/Yen is again under significant pressure as the $US continues to slide lower.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 103.80. Should this occur we will look for a push into 105.50, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move higher to 106.92.
If we cannot close above 103.80, we could see another move back down into 103.21. A break below this level may result in further downside to 102.80; and any further breaks to the downside may trigger a bigger move into 100.65.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1951 ( +73 or +3.89% )
This week we find GOLD at the crucial 1950 level. Can this market rip higher from here or will we see more sellers? We will be discussing this market this week in the MEMBER PORTAL.
For a move higher we must see this market hold above 1938. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2012. A break above this level sets Gold up for retests of 2033 and 2050.
If Gold cannot hold above 1938, we will look for a move back down to 1920. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1900; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a sharp move down to 1871.
