This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5565 ( +117 or +2.15% )
The RBA kept rates on hold and as a result the ASX has continued its rally and is now approaching some very important areas.
We spoke about the situation in Australia in more detail in our MEMBER PORTAL last week, with what the RBA may do going forward.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Quarterly HPI on Tuesday, Unemployment Numbers on Thursday.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see this market remain above 5521. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 5550. If the ASX can break and close strongly above 5550, we will look for a move to 5589. A strong close above this level may see the ASX rally to 5651 and 5705 by the end of the week.
If we fail to remain above 5521, we will look for a move back down to 5437. A break below this could result in a move back down into 5373. Further breaks to the downside could see the ASX fall aggressively back down to 5294.
EUROPE
DAX – 11229 ( +703 or +6.68% )
Last week we said BE PREPARED for a move! And what a move we saw! The DAX finished off the week UP >6%, and like the ASX is now coming into some key technical areas.
We will discuss this market in more detail throughout the week in our MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERT: ZEW Economic Sentiment on Tuesday, PMI Numbers on Thursday.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see the DAX close above 11281. Should this occur we will look for a quick move into 11340 before a pause. If momentum remains strong, we could see a very sharp move higher into 11592.
If we fail to close above 11281, we will look for a move back down to 11060. A break and close below this level could see the DAX trade down to 10983, and an additional break lower could see a move down to 10863.
US
SP500 – 2260 ( +68 or +3.1% )
The S&P500 continues to rally as we enter perhaps the last important week of the year: FED WEEK. This will be an event not to be missed!
VOLATILITY ALERT: Retail Sales, PPI and FOMC Interest Rate and Press Conference on Wednesday, CPI on Thursday, Building Permits on Friday.
We will be covering and trading the FOMC Interest Rate Announcement and Press Conference Live in our LIVE TV.
For a move higher we must now see the S&P remain above 2256. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2270. A strong break and close above this level could see the S&P rally to 2286, and should momentum remain very strong this week we will look for a move into 2292.
If we cannot remain above 2256, we will watch for this market to retest 2234. A strong break and close below 2234 could see this market head sharply lower to 2212; and if momentum to the downside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 2194.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7450 ( -8 or -0.11% )
The AUD managed to finish the week slightly lower and as such our levels remain unchanged. This market has been in a tight range for a few week so watch out for a breakout!
VOLATILITY ALERT: Quarterly HPI on Tuesday, Unemployment Numbers on Thursday.
For a move higher we would like to see the AUD hold above 0.7447, followed by a break and close above 0.7489. A strong break and close above this level could see a quick move to 0.7561 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move into 0.7617.
If we cannot hold above 0.7447, we will look for a move back down to 0.7364. A strong break below this level may result in a move back down into 0.7282 before another potential pause. Any subsequent breaks of this level however may result in a very fast move down to 0.7229.
EUR/USD – 1.0559 ( -109 or -1.02% )
It was a very big week on the EURO, and our traders traded this market exclusively last week on the LIVE CHAT ROOM, having been LONG early in the week (Italian Referendum) and then SHORT following the ECB announcement.
VOLATILITY ALERT: French, German and Euro area PMI numbers on Thursday.
For a sustained move higher we would now like to see this market hold above 1.0525. If we can hold above this level we will look for a move back into 1.0631, and should momentum remain strong we will look for a move back up to 1.0738.
If we cannot hold above 1.0525, we could see the EURO drop sharply to 1.0462 very quickly. A break below this level could see further downside to 1.0424, and should the selling continue 1.0327 cannot be ruled out by the end of the week.
GBP/USD – 1.2575 ( -151 or -1.19% )
The Pound failed to really close strongly above our key level of 1.2720 last week, having tested it for three consecutive days. This will be again be a key level to watch this week going into the BoE final Interest Rate decision for 2016..
VOLATILITY ALERT: Annual CPI on Tuesday, Unemployment Rate on Wednesday, Retail Sales & BoE Interest Rate Announcement on Thursday.
We will be covering the BoE Interest Rate Announcement Live in our LIVE TV.
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable remain above 1.2510. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 1.2720. A strong break through this level could see the GBP/USD trade to 1.2853, and should momentum remain very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.3035.
On the downside, should we break and close strongly below 1.2510, we may likely see a move down into 1.2458. A strong break and close below this level could see Cable trade to 1.2297, and should momentum remain strong to the downside we will look for a further move down to 1.2159.
USD/JPY – 115.21 ( +171 or +1.51% )
We have now seen a 5th week of consecutive higher prices in the $/JPY, and this week’s FOMC should be pivotal for many US dollar pairs; none moreso than the $/JPY.
For a continued move to the upside we would like to see this market hold above 114.52. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 115.54. A strong break above this level could see another push higher into 116.08 before a pause; and if momentum remains strong a push into 117.23 cannot be ruled out.
If however the USD/JPY cannot hold above 114.52, we will look for a move back down to 113.87. A strong break below this level could see the USD/JPY trade quickly down to 111.73 before another pause. If momentum remains strong, we will be watching 111.09 on the downside this week.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1159 ( -17 or -1.45% )
GOLD continues to be under pressure, and as we mentioned last week spent the majority of the week consolidating.
For a continued move higher we would like to see GOLD break and close above 1170. A strong close above this level could see a retest of 1187, and a break and close above this level could see a retest of 1206. Should we see continued momentum to the upside, a strong break and close above 1206 could see GOLD rally to 1222.
If however Gold cannot break above 1170, we may see a further move lower into 1146 before a pause. If we continue to break lower, we could see a very sharp move down to 1126 before the week’s end.
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