This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Continued uncertainty in the Global arena has created Volatility in some Indices.
China having a few 10% down days in a row followed by a few 10% up days.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5526 ( – 1 or – 0.02% )
Not much to say other than Volatility, Volatility, Volatility, embrace it as it is here. The ASX has only closed 1 point lower therefore our comments remain the same:
For the upmove to restart we need to see 5541 broken early in the week reaching 5595. Once this level is broken then we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close above 5636 before pushing towards 5715 and then 5754. Once these levels are broken we could see the ASX reach 5789 which would complete the range.
If the ASX finds it difficult to break back above 5541 then the downward move could continue if we see an early break past 5505. Once this is broken the ASX will could find support near the area between 5463 – 44 again. If the world markets take a leg down then we could see the ASX extend towards 5367.
EUROPE
DAX – 11390 ( + 274 or + 2.46% )
De-ja Vue:
Another wild ride for the DAX traders last week with a 400+ point day.
Greece shows the rest of the world how democracy really works.
Prime Minister says ‘let the people vote’
People Vote ‘NO, to Austerity’
Prime Minister agrees to Austerity
This my friends is how democracy works, if you think otherwise then you are kidding yourself.
For the upmove to continue we would like to see the Gap filled at 11537. Once this occurs 11631 needs to be broken early followed by a strong push towards 11791 with a possible extension to 11868.
If the downside restarts then the levels we will be watching closely (depending on momentum) will be 11292 – 57, 11163, 11080, 10941, 10867. If 10867 is broken this week we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 2076 ( + 2 or + 0.10% )
Not much to say other than Volatility, Volatility, Volatility, embrace it as it is here.
Actually, 2046 becoming the number to watch.
The S&P has only closed 2 points higher therefore our comments remain the same:
If the upward move is to restart we need to see a strong up bar break through 2085 before seeing 2101 again. If the momentum is strong and we continue to see the move higher then as always the two important levels of 2112 and 2126 come back into play.
If the S&P cannot get back above 2100 early this week and fill the GAP then a break back down past the area between 2050 – 46 could see 2033 and 2024 very quickly. If the downside momentum is strong then 2010 will not be far away.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7441 ( – 64 or – 0.85% )
The AUD moved lower again early last week to then settle comfortably between 2 new levels of 7494 and 7407 which were mentioned last week.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see a strong break and close past 7494 before reaching 7635. If the momentum is strong then we could see 7718.
For the downside move to start a new leg down then 7407 needs to be broken pushing down towards 7263. If 7263 is broken this week we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUR.USD – 11155 ( + 41 or + 0.37% )
Another 100+ point Gap down on Monday last week followed by some movement but not with the same expected Volatility. With all that is going on in Greece the EUR has held up quite well. Lets see how long this lasts?
Again “Who said trading on Monday wasn’t exciting?”
If the EUR is to move back up again we would like to see a solid break past 11166 before pushing back past 11315 and finally reaching 11396 again. We will then like to see a strong long up bar break through this level if we are going to reach 11471.
If the downside move plays out then a clean break past 11038 will see the EUR back down near 10941 and 10899. If these levels are broken with a long down bar then 10780 could be seen quickly and possibly extending to 10590.
GBP.USD – 15510 ( – 54 or – 0.35% )
The GBP continued its fall from grace reaching a low of 15330 which was only 36 points below our level of 15366 mentioned last week before rebounding back to 15550.
For the GBP to restart its run higher we would like to see early breaks past 15549 and 15591 before reaching 15644. 15644 will then need to broken with a long up bar before reaching our FICM level of 15744.
For the down move to continue we would like to see another strong break past our FICM level of 15458. This would then need to push the pair back down towards 15366. If 15366 is broken this week we will discuss further downside levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
USD.JPY – 12278 ( + 4 or + 0.03% )
Not much to say other than Volatility, Volatility, Volatility, embrace it as it is here.
The USDJPY has only closed 4 points higher therefore our comments remain the same:
All I can say is “get ready for another CHF style debacle”.
For the USD to continue its longer term rally we need to see a strong up bar break through the area between 12324 – 46 before reaching 12403. if the momentum continues strong then 12464 could be seen.
For this pair to move back down we need to see a strong move past 12225 before reaching 12184. Once this is broken then 12151 could be reached which would actually complete the downside range wset back in March 2015. If the momentum is strong then we could see an overexertion down towards another FICM level of 12064.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1163 ( – 5 or – 0.43% )
“People just don’t love GOLD anymore” The world is fine and there is no chance of inflation or any other problem Our comments remain the same:
For the upward move to continue we would like to see an early break past 1177 – 80 before pushing back towards 1192 and possibly 1208.
For the down move to restart and continue then 1167 needs to become a solid level of resistance breaks back down past 1161 again. If we see continued downward momentum then 1149 will not be far away. If the range is to be completed then expect 1134 to be seen.
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