This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Light Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5808 ( + 239 or + 4.29% )
The ASX continued higher again this time pushing past 5800. It now looks like the ASX is trying to break as many records as it can.
A little more maths for you all.
The ASX has now moved higher (during trading hours) for 13 days straight. The total move has been 594.4 points. This is a new record for the ASX. The big question is how long can it continue to go up?
NOTE: The current up move is trading at 2 Standard Deviations.
For the up move to continue we would like to see an early strong break past 5849 before continuing higher. As the current move is outside the norm, once this level is broken we will discuss it in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the ASX has overextended its move then we would like to see a strong break back down past 5782 followed by a push past 5751. Once this occurs we will be monitoring 5684.
EUROPE
DAX – 10791 ( + 126 or + 1.18% )
The DAX moved higher early but then it went sideways. It is now trading outside the STANDARD DEVIATION channel. Caution should be observed.
For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong move early breaking back above 10830, Once this occurs we could see 10989 tested. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see the DAX extend its move to an ambitious 11292.
If the downside move starts then we would like to see an early break past 10760 reaching 10607. If the downside momentum is strong then 10499 could be seen.
US
S&P – 2059 ( + 64 or + 3.21% )
The S&P moved higher once again, but if you look at the past few weeks it has been an up and down ranging affair. How long will this continue you ask, well until a key level is broken we say. 2088 on the upside and 1981 on the downside, until then enjoy the roller-coaster.
For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong early break and close past 2088. Once this occurs we could see the Index break through 2104 before reaching 2126.
For the down move to restart we would like to see an early long down bar break and close past 2053. This could then lead the S&P towards 2024 and 2010 respectively.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7794 ( + 29 or + 0.37% )
The RBA cut rates to 2.25% which only mean one thing, Australia needs growth. The AUD then took a leg down and encouraged many traders on twitter to go short, it reached a low of 7676 before fading straight back to close slightly higher for the week. Therefore our comments remain the same.
For the up move to restart we would like to see the AUD break back above 7927 before reaching 8088 Once this occurs we can look at further upside moves.
For the downside move to continue we would like to see a strong down bar break past 7718 very quickly. Once this occurs we could see 7494.
EUR.USD – 11313 ( + 29 or + 0.26% )
The EUR looked like it wanted to move higher early but then each up day was followed by a down day with equal value. Maybe there is some confusion amongst traders on direction at the moment as the EUR closed only 29 points higher for the week. Therefore our comments remain the same.
If the EUR somehow finds a reason to move up then we would like to see an early break and close back past 11357 before reaching 11498. If the upward momentum is strong then 11726 could be seen.
For the down move to continue lower we would like to see a strong momentum break past 11038 before reaching 10899. Once this level is broken then 10780 could be seen.
GBP.USD – 15244 ( + 205 or + 1.36% )
The GBP last week broke the trend of “everso grinding lower with sideways ranging moves followed by a sharp move down then rinse and repeat.” Until this pattern changes we will only provide 1 level either side. At the moment it has found temporary support near 14999.
For the GBP to move higher we would like to see a solid break and close past 15280 followed by 15366. Once this level is broken and if the upward momentum stays strong then we could see 15522.
If the GBP goes back to its old ways(from July 2014 till now) then a strong early break past 15140 could see it near 14999 once again. If this level is then broken we will be monitoring 14832 very closely.
USD.JPY – 11918 ( + 163 or +1.39% )
The USD.JPY started the week slowly but as soon as the job numbers came out up she went moving 200 points from the lows.
For the USD to continue its rally we would like to see an early break past 11931 before extending quickly towards 12064. This level will need to be broken with a long up bar otherwise it could become resistance very quickly.
If the USDJPY restarts back lower then we would like to see strong early moves reaching 11813 followed by 11679.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1233 ( – 50 or – 3.90% )
GOLD took a leg down on Friday due to better than expected US job numbers. This spurred a USD rally as there might be an early interest rate rise.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see an early break and close back above the area between 1241 – 52 reaching 1263. Once this level is broken we could see GOLD back near 1280 again.
If GOLD continues lower then we would like to see strong early breaks past 1226, 1216 and 1208. if the downward momentum is strong then GOLD could see 1180 very quickly
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