This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Light Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5569 ( + 85 or + 1.55% )
The ASX continued higher last week with a strong push past 5542 on Thursday.
A little bit of maths for you all.
The ASX has now moved higher (during trading hours) for 8 days straight. The total move has been 362.5 points. This is over 248.5 points above the average for this type of move. Therefore there is a 99.69% chance that the ASX could close lower on Monday. For this to occur, please watch the key levels mentioned below.
For the up move to continue through to this week we would like to see a strong long up bar break through 5595 before attempting to break 5636. if this level is broken then the ASX could move towards 5684 very quickly.
If the percentages play out then a strong break past 5542 could start the down move. 5524 and 5505 would then need to broken with a long down bar before reaching the key area between 5463 – 48, the ASX could then find some important support.
EUROPE
DAX – 10665 ( + 57 or + 0.54% )
The DAX moved higher early to reach its full range, then moved sideways for the rest of the week. NOTE: the FULL range has been met, the DAX has closed on the lower STANDARD DEVIATION and we have Divergence. It will be very interesting to see if the perfect storm creates a downside move.
For the up move to continue this week we would like to see a strong move early reaching 10830. We would then need to see a long up bar break through this level before further moves higher can occur. Once this occurs we will discuss it in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the perfect storm plays out and we see a downside move then we would like to see an early break immediately on Monday followed by a strong move towards 10499. Once this is broken with strong momentum we could see 10258 quickly.
US
S&P – 1995 ( – 54 or – 2.64% )
The S&P struggled all week moving lower after the first day and not really looking back.
For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong early break and close past 20102068 followed by a move towards 2024. Once this broken we could see 2053 quickly.
For the down move to continue we would like to see an early long down bar break and close past both 1990 and 1981. Once this is broken we could see 1957 – 47 area very quickly. If the downside momentum is strong then we could see the SPX overextend towards and ambitious level of 1927
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7765 ( – 148 or – 1.87% )
The AUD has now taken another leg down reaching a low of 7719 which was only 1 point higher than our FICM level of 7718. This level will now be the focus of our attention.
For the up move to restart we would like to see the AUD break back above 7927 before reaching 8088 Once this occurs we can look at further upside moves.
For the downside move to continue we would like to see a strong down bar break past 7718 very quickly. Once this occurs we could see 7494.
EUR.USD – 11284 ( + 84 or + 0.71% )
The EUR touched 110 before bouncing back to close just under 100 points higher for the week. The real impact of QE will be seen over the next few months. Therefore our comments remain the same.
If the EUR somehow finds a reason to move up then we would like to see an early break and close back past 11357 before reaching 11498. If the upward momentum is strong then 11726 could be seen.
For the down move to continue lower we would like to see a strong momentum break past 11038 before reaching 10899. Once this level is broken then 10780 could be seen.
GBP.USD – 15039 ( + 49 or + 0.33% )
The GBP is everso grinding lower with sideways ranging moves followed by a sharp move down then rinse and repeat. Until this pattern changes we will only provide 1 level either side. At the moment it has found temporary support near 14999.
For the GBP to move higher we would like to see a solid break and close back above 15140.
If the GBP moves lower we would like to see a solid break and close below 14832.
USD.JPY – 11755 ( – 21 or – 0.18% )
“After a stellar performance last year this pair has taken a bit of a breather.”
Continued sideways moves for this pair, therefore our comments remain the same.
For the USD to rally again we would like to see a strong break past 11813 before a strong push can be made towards 11931. Once this level is broken with a long up bar then we could see 12064.
If the USDJPY continues lower then a strong break past 11679 could set off a chain reaction through 11543 reaching 11471.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1283 ( – 11 or – 0.85% )
GOLD is looking very, very Interesting at the moment. We saw a 30 point move down followed by a 30 point up move immediately. The equity markets drop GOLD rallies and visa-versa.
If GOLD comes back into favour as a safe haven then we could see some volatility before the final decision is made by the markets. Gold closed slightly lower for the week therefore our comments remain the same. One thing to note is that we saw GOLD bounce off our FICM level of 1252.
For the upward move to continue then we would like to see an early break and close back above 1295 which will then help GOLD push past both 1308 and 1329 on its way towards 1351 with strong momentum.
For GOLD to return lower we would like to see a strong break and close past 1287 -83 and then 1274 before reaching 1263. Once this is broken then we could see GOLD find some support near 1252 – 41.
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