This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Light Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5484 ( + 125 or + 2.33% )
The ASX was quick to move higher mid week with long up bars through key levels. It has now closed above the 5448 – 63 area but also stopped short of breaking past the Dec 2014 highs of 5507. We will be watching these two area’s closely this week.
For the up move to continue through to this week we would like to see a strong long up bar break through both 5505 and 5524 before reaching 5542. Once this occurs then we need to see a long up bar break and close past 5542 before the ASX can reach 5595. If the upward momentum is strong from the world markets then 5636 could be seen.
For the down move to restart we would like to see an early break with a long down bar through the key area between 5463 – 48 before reaching 5418. Once this is broken then 5367 could supply some important support.
EUROPE
DAX – 10608 ( + 332 or + 3.23% )
The DAX took a breather early but then off she goes taking another leg up after the ECB confirmed QE action. We have mentioned previously that the DAX will steam ahead many times. If it is correct then the rest of the markets will follow, otherwise the DAX will revert back down quickly.
For the up move to continue this week we would like to see a strong move early reaching 10830. We would then need to see a long up bar break through this level before further moves higher can occur. Once this occurs we will discuss it in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the DAX has moved up to fast and if the downside is to restart then we would like to see a strong break past 10258 before reaching 10146. Once this level is broken the DAX could find some temporary support near 10075 – 35.
US
S&P – 2049 ( + 30 or + 1.49% )
The S&P is slowly moving up but it has not yet been as aggressive as we have seen it be in the past. But don’t misunderstand the SPX it could occur when you are not watching, so be prepared. One thing to note that it stopped short of breaking past the 9th Jan high of 2068.
For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong early break and close past 2068 followed by a move towards 2088 – 92. This area will be the key area that will need to be broken if the SPX is to move into new highs.
For the down move to re-start we would like to see a strong break and close below 2024 before reaching 2010. If the downward momentum continues strong we could see the SPX break through 2010 reaching 1990 and 1981.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7913 ( – 313 or – 3.81% )
The AUD has now taken another leg down. This will now be the focus of our attention.
For the up move to restart we would like to see the AUD break back above 8088 before reaching 8139 Once this occurs we can look at further upside moves.
If the downside momentum continues strong we could see the AUD near 7718 very quickly. For a more detailed day-to-day overview of the AUD you need to go to our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUR.USD – 11205 ( – 356 or – 3.08% )
The EUR has completely fallen off a cliff with the ECB launching QE.
If the EUR somehow finds a reason to move up then we would like to see an early break and close back past 11357 before reaching 11498. If the upward momentum is strong then 11726 could be seen.
For the down move to continue lower we would like to see a strong momentum break past 11038 before reaching 10899. Once this level is broken then 10780 could be seen.
GBP.USD – 14990 ( – 147 or – 0.97% )
The GBP is everso grinding lower with sideways ranging moves followed by a sharp move down then rinse and repeat. Until this pattern changes we will only provide 1 level either side.
For the GBP to move higher we would like to see a solid break and close back above 15140.
If the GBP moves lower we would like to see a solid break and close below 14832.
USD.JPY – 11776 ( + 20 or + 0.17% )
“After a stellar performance last year this pair has taken a bit of a breather.”
Another sideways move for this pair, therefore our comments remain the same.
For the USD to rally again we would like to see a strong break past 11813 before a strong push can be made towards 11931. Once this level is broken with a long up bar then we could see 12064.
If the USDJPY continues lower then a strong break past 11679 could set off a chain reaction through 11543 reaching 11471.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1294 ( + 15 or + 1.17% )
GOLD is looking Interesting at the moment. We saw a move higher early but then some sideways movement towards the end of the week. If GOLD comes back into favour as a safe haven then we could see some volatility before the final decision is made by the markets.
For the upward move to continue then we would like to see an early break and close back above 1295 which will then help GOLD push past both 1308 and 1329 on its way towards 1351 with strong momentum.
For GOLD to return lower we would like to see a strong break and close past 1287 -83 and then 1274 before reaching 1263. Once this is broken then we could see GOLD find some support near 1252 – 41.
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