This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week and discuss in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5903 ( + 95 or + 1.64% )
After 13 straight up days (during normal trading hours) the ASX started last week with a slight move lower, but then Friday came and the world markets went on an almighty rally, so the ASX had to follow. If we see continued rallies from the S&P and DAX the ASX could extend it’s gains without any pullback.
NOTE: Continued Divergence forming
Moves higher by the ASX will be discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
If the ASX has overextended its move then we would like to see a strong break back down past 5842 before reaching 5782. If the momentum is strong then we could see a push past 5751. Once this occurs we will be monitoring 5684.
EUROPE
DAX – 10967 ( + 176 or + 1.63% )
After an early start lower, the DAX moved higher quickly reaching a new ATH and breaching 11000 for the first time. The fact that the DAX closed slightly lower then the ATH from 03 Feb 2015 is something to watch.
For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong move early breaking back above 11000 with a long up bar. Once this occurs we could see our first target area of 11257 – 92 reached very quickly.
If the downside move starts then we would like to see an early break past 10830 before reaching 10760. If the downside momentum is strong then 10607 could be seen.
US
S&P – 2097 ( + 38 or + 1.85% )
Another move higher by the S&P closing at a new ATH. This could be the start of a new leg up unless some unexpected news comes out to force it lower.
For the up move to continue we would like to see a strong early break and close past 2104. Once this occurs we could see the Index break through 2014 before reaching 2126.
For the down move to restart we would like to see an early long down bar break and close past 2088. If the downward momentum is strong we could see 2053.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7749 ( – 45 or – 0.58% )
The AUD moved sideways last week, with only one real attempt at breaking our key level of 7718 getting down to a low of 7634 before closing just above. 7718 has now become a key level for the markets and we will be monitoring breaks below carefully this week. As we had had a sideways move our comments remain the same.
For the up move to restart we would like to see the AUD break back above 7927 before reaching 8088 Once this occurs we can look at further upside moves.
For the downside move to continue we would like to see a strong down bar break past 7718 very quickly. Once this occurs we could see 7494.
EUR.USD – 11388 ( + 75 or + 0.66% )
The EUR closed slightly higher last week. We mentioned last week that the EUR might be a little confused at the moment, this could be due to the aggressive downside move after the ECB QE program. Has it moved too low too fast? Only time will tell, until then trade the key levels.
If the EUR moves up again then we would like to see an early break and close back past 11498. If the upward momentum is strong then 11726 could be seen.
For the down move to continue lower we would like to see a strong momentum break and close past 11357. Once this occurs and if the downward momentum continues 11038 could be seen.
GBP.USD – 15384 ( + 140 or + 0.92% )
Now that the GBP has made an attempt at moving higher, could we see the opposite of
“everso grinding lower with sideways ranging moves followed by a sharp move down then rinse and repeat.” or will it go back to its previous behaviour?
For the GBP to move higher again we would like to see a solid break and close past 15522 before moving back toward 15644.
For the down move to restart we would like to see an early break down past 15366 reaching 15280. If the downward momentum continues strong then we could see 15140.
USD.JPY – 11875 ( – 43 or – 0.36% )
The USD pushed higher against the JPY early and traded above 120 before comments from BOJ policy makers saying that extra monetary easing would be counter productive made the currency pair move 100+ points in a matter of minutes. Internally Trade View has said that the CHF debacle has opened the door for further currency moves of such a dramatic nature that it will become the norm.
How quick we forget “the markets have been pumped with artificial liquidity for some time now, what do you think will happen when the Central Banks, who don’t care about you and I start removing those funds from the markets? Think about it very carefully. One thing that would not surprise us (we are preparing for) is the US FED raising rates earlier than expected”
For the USD to continue its rally we would like to see an early break past 11931 before extending quickly towards 12064. This level will need to be broken with a long up bar otherwise it could become resistance very quickly.
If the USDJPY restarts back lower then we would like to see strong early moves reaching 11813 followed by 11679.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1229 ( – 4 or – 0.32% )
GOLD moved lower again reaching a low of 1216 but bounced straight back to the 1230 area to close slightly lower. Therefore our comments will remain the same.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see an early break and close back above the area between 1241 – 52 reaching 1263. Once this level is broken we could see GOLD back near 1280 again.
If GOLD continues lower then we would like to see strong early breaks past 1226, 1216 and 1208. if the downward momentum is strong then GOLD could see 1180 – 78 very quickly
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