This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5128 ( – 199 or – 3.74% )
The ASX started it’s down move early breaking through 5200 and never looked back.
For the up move to restart we would like to see an early solid long up bar break and close past the area between 5176 – 99. Once this occurs 5270 might provide some resistance.
For the down move to continue we would like to see a strong move past 5112 followed by a strong long down bar break past the area between 5072 – 56. If the momentum stays strong then 4971 could be seen.
EUROPE
FTSE – 6301 ( – 227 or – 3.48% )
The FTSE has taken another hit falling over 3%.
For the move higher to restart we would like to see an early break past both 6357 and 6394 before an attempt to break through 6459 is made. This will need to occur with a solid long up bar, if so then the FTSE could find resistance near 6523 – 50.
If the downside move takes another leg down we could see early breaks past 6264 moving down towards 6182. If this level is also broken then 6002 could be seen. A strong break below this level could see heavy downside moves.
DAX – 8740 ( – 539 or – 5.81% )
It does not take much for the DAX to lead the moves and last week saw heavy selling in the DAX.
Due to the Freefall of the DAX after breaking through 8961 we see this to be the significant level that needs to be broken before a move higher can restart. Once this occurs then we could see it move back past 9000 reaching 9084.
If the DAX continues it’s strong move lower then we would like to see an early break past 8641, once this level is broken then 8522 could provide some support. But if this is then broken with a long down bar then 8429 and 8335 could be reached. If the momentum down is strong then 8106 might not be too far away.
US
S&P – 1900 ( – 67 or – 3.41% )
Ooops, the markets are not happy or are they just shaking out and then rally? We will have to wait and see.
For the up move to restart we would like to see an early break back above 1915 followed by a strong break and close past 1927. This could then lead the S&P to 1938 – 43.
If the downside move continues strong this week we would like to see 1882 broken early in the week followed by a strong break and close past 1869 continuing through to 1854.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 8687 ( + 13 or + 0.15% )
The AUD had a wild ride last week moving higher early in the week then coming back down and closing only 13 points higher from the previous week. Therefore our comments from last week remain the same.
For the up move to restart we would like to see a solid long bar break and close back above 8774 followed by a strong move past 8823 which could potentially reach 8971.
The AUD has now broken down and the next key level is 8660 (lows from Jan 2014). If this level is broken early this week we could see 8563 and 8461 very quickly. Once these levels are broken 8378 could be seen.
EUR.USD – 12628 ( + 114 or + 0.91% )
The EUR started moving higher last week but came to resistance near our FICM level of 12764 and fell away by 100+ points.
For an upmove to restart we would like to see an early break past 12646 reaching the area between 12748 – 64 which could become a solid level of resistance. But if this is broken with a long up bar we could see 12823 and if the upward momentum is strong then a possible extension towards 12967 – 81 is possible.
For the down move to continue we would like to see another break back down past 12606 followed by a clean break past 12543. This could then lead to a further breakdown in the EUR leading it down towards 12375. Once this level is broken we could see 12262.
GBP.USD – 16075 ( + 113 or + 0.71% )
The GBP followed the EUR last week or did the EUR Follow the GBP? Either way they both went up hit some resistance and then came back down.
For the GBP to move higher we would like to see a solid start to the week breaking past 16102 and 16148. This could then lead the pair to reach 16246 and possibly 16307.
Another leg lower could be seen if an early break past 15988 occurs. This could then lead it to reach 15844 and 15723 respectively. If the down move is strong then we would like to see a long bar break past 15723 before reaching 15681 and possibly extending towards 15522.
USD.JPY – 10764 ( – 214 or – 1.95% )
This pair is now following the equity markets.
For the USD to move higher we would like to see 10836 broken early in the week with a long up bar reaching 10914. Once this level is broken we could see 110 tested again.
If the down move restarts we would like to see an early break and close back past 10738 followed by a break past 10683. If this level is also broken then we could see 10541 provide some support.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1223 ( + 32 or + 2.69% )
USD DOWN, VIX UP, GOLD UP. This could get Interesting.
For the upward move to continue we would like to see an early break past 1230 before reaching 1241. Once this occurs we would like to see a solid break past 1252 with a long up bar before we see 1274
If another down move restarts then an early break past 1208. Once this level is broken it will all come down to speed of the next move. If the momentum is strong and we see a long down bar reach 1181 then it would not take much to break through 1180 – 82.
US LIGHT CRUDE OIL – 8556 ( – 412 or – 4.59% )
Another heavy move lower for OIL.
For the upmove to restart on OIL we would like to see 8395 hold as a strong level of support before another break higher past 8551 occurs. This will then need to be done with a long solid up bar reaching 8750 and possibly reaching 8884.
If OIL continues lower and breaks through the Nov 2013 lows near 8395 then we will discuss further possible levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
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