This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5483 ( +20 or +0.37% )
The ASX is now in a sideways range and as once again we saw a bounce from the lows of 5429 which is only 5 points from our FICM level of 5424, this confirms our comment from last week “5424 will play an important role”. As no real movement has occurred our comments from last week remain the same with a minor change to the downside.
After 5424 held as a support level once more, for the up move to restart we would like to see a break back past 5562 with a long up bar. If the momentum is strong when it breaks through 5562 then we could see a further push higher towards 5704. As mentioned last week, this would need to be based on strong momentum.
If the down move restarts then we would like to see an early break back down past 5454 followed by an all important break and close through 5424 with a long solid down bar. Once this level is broken then we could see temporary support near 5367. If this level does not provide support and is broken with a long down bar then 5270 could be seen with a possible extension down to 5201.
EUROPE
FTSE – 6865 ( +30 or + 0.44% )
The FTSE made an important move early in the week breaking through 6848 with a long up bar, but then moved sideways for most of the week until dipping back below on Thursday and Friday to then finish higher by only 30 points.
For the up move to continue we would like to see 6848 become a strong level of support before another push higher is made. Once this occurs we would like to see a strong upward momentum break past 6878 and possibly 6904. This will then complete the range set back in OCT 2013. Once this level is broken we will discuss further in our members area.
For a down move to restart we would like to see 6848 broken early in the week with a long solid down bar followed by a strong move back down through 6804 reaching 6740. If the momentum continues then we could see 6687 – 56 area reached.
DAX – 9636 ( +45 or + 0.47% )
The DAX rallied early in the week moving over 150 points in one day. After another spike higher breaking past 9800 reaching all time highs it too fell back down.
For the upmove to restart again then we would like to see an early break and close past both 9735 – 62. Once this occurs then this could lead the DAX to new all time highs again. If the momentum is strong and the rest of the world markets follow then we could see the DAX reach the magical 10,000 mark.
If the down move continues from last week then we would like to see a solid break early past 9601 followed by another strong break past 9524 – 9505 area pushing towards 9401 Once this level is broken then we could see the area between 9365 – 9321 reached. As mentioned previously if the downward momentum continues with heavy volume then the area between 9222 – 9201 will play an important role for the Index.
US
S&P – 1878 ( 0 or 0.00% )
The S&P reached another all time high last week, but then it moved lower to close flat for the week. Therefore our comments remain the same as last week. Last week we said “We have our concerns”. It looks like some of the bigger players in the market are also getting nervous.
For the S&P to break higher we would like to see an early break and close past 1884, once this level is broken then we would like to see solid upward momentum break through the 1897- 1901 area before reaching 1915.
For the down move to continue then we would like to see an early break past 1854 reaching 1841. If the downward momentum becomes stronger then we could see 1812 tested again.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 9360 ( – 1 or – 0.01% )
Last week saw a sideways move for the AUD and is still technically range bound. Therefore our comments remain the same as last week.
For the medium term up move to continue then we would like to see an early break back above 9391. Once this level is reached and broken then we could see 9461 tested again with a possible extension towards 9491.
If the AUD restarts its short term downward move then we would like to see 9300 broken early before reaching 9226 followed by the area between 9181 – 76. If this area is also broken with strong downward momentum we could see 9116 followed by 9035.
EUR.USD – 13693 ( – 65 or – 0.47% )
The EUR is now trading on ‘open mouth’ fundamentals.
For the up move to continue we would like to see an early break past 13722 followed by a solid break and close above 13806 leading to further breaks past 13868. If the momentum is strong then we could see a test of the New highs created just last week of 13990 tested.
For the EUR to continue last weeks down move then we would like to see an early break past the 13685 – 51 area. Once this occurs we could see 13589 with a possible extension down to 13515.
GBP.USD – 16810 ( – 36 or – 0.21% )
The GBP continued its move lower last week closing only 36 points down.
If the GBP finds a way to restart its move higher then we would like to see a solid break past 16864 and 16902. Once this occurs we could see another test towards 17000. For this level to then hold we need to see a break and close above 17000 with a long solid up bar.
If the slow and steady down move continues then we would like to see 16791 broken early reaching 16749. If the momentum is strong this could lead the pair to reach 16659. Further breaks past 16659 could see 16537.
USD.JPY – 10149 ( – 37 or – 0.36% )
Another timid move by this pair last week. If no real market solution is found to the mounting debt for both countries then we could be range bound for a while, either way caution should be taken. Therefore our comments remain the same as last week
For the USD to move higher we would like to see an early break past 10216 followed by a strong break above 10264 with a long up bar reaching 10309. If the momentum is strong then we could see an extension towards 10353.
If downward move gains strength and 10152 becomes a solid level of resistance this could then lead the pair to reach 10052. If 10052 is then broken with a long solid down bar we could see 9977.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1293 ( +5 or + 0.39% )
GOLD has had another uneventful week closing only 5 points higher. We therefore keep all of our comments from last week the same “Continued complacency in the VIX and a lack of safe haven status for GOLD is a concerning market trend at the moment. What this means that if any event occurs then sharp down moves could be aggressive and unforgiving in the equity markets causing the VIX to spike and GOLD to rally.”
For GOLD to move higher from here then we would like to see 1284 hold as a solid level of support followed by a strong break past 1295 – 99 area. Once this occurs we would like to see another break past 1316. If the momentum is strong then we could see 1327 – 34 area reached.
If the down move restarts then we would like to see 1284 broken early in the week with a long down bar. Once this occurs then we could see 1269 tested and if broken with strong momentum then 1246 could be seen.
US LIGHT CRUDE OIL – 101.54 ( +150 or +1.50% )
Another rally by OIL early in the week helped it close 1.5% higher for the week. Any concerns for in the supply chain fuel further rallies.
For the upmove to continue then we would like to see a strong move higher breaking past 102.76 If we see 102.76 broken then OIL could reach 103.93 before finding temporary resistance near 104.74
For the medium term down move to restart then we would like to see an early break past 101.19 and 100.86 before dipping back below the $100 level reaching 99.92. If the momentum is strong then we could see 99.34 reached. Further downward momentum could drive OIL down past 98.12 and towards 97.43 and even extend to 96.99.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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