This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes. For up to the minute market analysis see our live trading room.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6100 ( +22 or +0.36% )
The ASX continues its sideways consolidation as we once again look for a breakout this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6070 followed by a push into 6140. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6206, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 6276.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6070, we will look for a move back down to 5921 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 5823, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5746.
EUROPE
DAX – 12793 ( -77 or -0.6% )
The DAX was also sideways last week as it struggles to remain above 13,000.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 18:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly)
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12714. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move back up into 13050, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13266.
If the DAX fails to hold above 12714, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12566. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12266; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12166.
US
SP500 – 3396 ( +28 or +0.83% )
The S&P has only just posted new all time highs. Can it continue this week? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 22:30 – Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
Tue 23:30 – FED Lending Announcement
Wed 00:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 00:00 – Pending Home Sales (monthly)
The 04:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 22:30 – Advance GDP (quarterly)
Fri 22:30 – Personal Spending (monthly)
Fri 23:45 – Chicago PMI
Sat 00:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3375. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3412. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3450; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3498.
If we cannot hold above 3375, we could see this market move lower into 3308. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3274; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3248.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7159 ( -11 or -0.15% )
The Aussie Dollar once again remained flat for the majority of last week and as such our levels remain unchanged.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7236 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7113, we will look for the AUD to 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1795 ( -45 or -0.38% )
The EURO is building a strong consolidation pattern below 1.2000. Is this an early warning sign of a top or bigger move yet to come? We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:00 – Spanish Unemployment Rate
Thu 18:00 – German Prelim GDP (quarterly)
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1738. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.1840. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1925; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2048 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1738, we could see a fast move down into 1.1678 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1612, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1496.
GBP/USD – 1.3089 ( +5 or +0.04% )
Like the EURO, Cable is also sideways and we are watching this market for any signs of weakness now.
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3035, followed by a retest into 1.3161 before a pause. If however momentum is very strong we may see a strong push into 1.3277.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3035, we could see a move back down to 1.2867. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2720 by the week’s end.
USD/JPY – 105.80 ( -78 or -0.73% )
The $/Yen continues its volatility as we head into a very important week. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 105.99. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 106.82, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move all the way back up to 108.31.
If we cannot close above 105.99, we could see another move back down into 105.50. A break below this level may result in further downside to 104.97; and any further breaks to the downside may trigger a bigger move into 103.21.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1940 ( -3 or -0.15% )
GOLD was also flat by the week’s end and this market is set for another volatile week. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1938. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2012. A break above this level sets Gold up for retests of 2033 and 2050.
If Gold cannot hold above 1938, we will look for a move back down to 1920. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1900; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a sharp move down to 1871.
