This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week. We discuss this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5939 ( +128 or +2.16% )
The ASX managed to rebound slightly last week but remains in a sideways consolidation
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
Fri 09:30 – RBA Governor Lowe
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6070 followed by a push into 6140. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6206, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 6276.
If the ASX cannot close above 6070, we will look for a move back down to 5921 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 5823, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5746.
EUROPE
DAX – 12705 ( +384 or +3.12% )
The DAX also managed to close higher last week however also remains range bound this week. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 12566. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move into 12714, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13050.
If the DAX fails to hold above 12566, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12266. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12166; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 11871.
US
SP500 – 3354 ( +78 or +2.38% )
The S&P is once again approaching it’s all time highs and this week we will know more about how strong the bulls really are.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3308. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3375. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3392; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3412.
If we cannot hold above 3308, we could see this market move lower into 3274. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 3248; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3210.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7159 ( +17 or +0.24% )
The Aussie Dollar was slightly higher last week as we head into another important week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
Fri 09:30 – RBA Governor Lowe
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7236 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.7113, we will look for the AUD to 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1786 ( +13 or +0.11% )
In Friday’s LIVE TV we discussed the EURO being at an important topping level. We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1738. Should this occur we could see a retest of 1.1840. A break of this level could see this market rally further to 1.1925; and if momentum is very strong, 1.2048 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1738, we could see a fast move down into 1.1678 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1612, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1496.
GBP/USD – 1.3051 ( -33 or -0.25% )
Cable was slightly lower last week. Is there trouble ahead for this market?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 16:00 – Claimant Count Change
Wed 16:00 – Prelim GDP (quarterly)
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.3035, followed by a retest into 1.3161 before a pause. If however momentum is very strong we may see a strong push into 1.3277.
Should we fail to hold above 1.3035, we could see a move back down to 1.2867. A break below this level however could see Cable further depreciate to 1.2720 by the week’s end.
USD/JPY – 105.91 ( +8 or +0.08% )
The $/Yen also remained flat and as such our levels remain unchanged
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Mountain Day)
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 105.99. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 106.52, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move all the way back up to 108.31.
If we cannot close above 105.99, we could see another move back down into 105.50. A break below this level may result in further downside to 104.97; and any further breaks to the downside may trigger a bigger move into 103.21.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 2034 ( +59 or +2.99% )
Gold is also at a very important level and all eyes will be on this market this week. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 2012. A break above this level sets Gold up for a retest of 2050; and if momentum is very strong we could see a quick move into 2078 and 2112.
If Gold cannot hold above 2012, we will look for a move back down to 1998. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1969; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a sharp move down to 1928.
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