This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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We may take multiple trades throughout the week. We discuss this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6031 ( -34 or -0.56% )
The ASX continues to consolidate following no change from the RBA last week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close above 6070 followed by a push into 6140. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6206, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 6276.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6070, we will look for a move back down to 5921 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 5823, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5746.
EUROPE
DAX – 12709 ( +133 or +1.06% )
The DAX was also sideways albeit slightly higher; can we break out this week? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
Note: Tuesday is a holiday in France (National Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12714. Should this occur, we will look for a strong move into 13050, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13205.
If the DAX fails to close above 12714, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12566. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12366; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12166.
US
SP500 – 3188 ( +64 or +2.05% )
The S&P is also managing to hold up as we head into a very important week for this market. Can the bulls take flight from here?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Wed 23:15 – Industrial Production (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3166. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3208. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3248; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 3274.
If we cannot hold above 3166, we could see this market move lower into 3106. A break of this level however may result in a quick move down to 2998; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2974.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6948 ( +13 or +0.19% )
The Aussie Dollar yet again remains in a very narrow and tight sideways range; as the key 70c level remains strong resistance.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7014. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7113, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7197 – 0.7236 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.7014, we will look for the AUD to 0.6934. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6830; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6750.
EUR/USD – 1.1219 ( +80 or +0.71% )
The EURO is holding firm above the important 1.1200 level but can it continue to hold again for another week this week? We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1249, we could see a fast move down into 1.1117 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into 1.1033, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.0977 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2623 ( +140 or +1.12% )
The British Pound managed to find its way higher last week following a move back up to the key level of 1.2600.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 01:30 – BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
Tue 16:00 – GDP (monthly)
Wed 16:00 – CPI (annual)
Thu 16:00 – Claimant Count Change)
Thu 18:30 – BoE Credit Conditions Survey
Fri 20:00 – BoE Governor Bailey Speaks
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2297, followed by a retest of 1.2480 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.2622; and if momentum is very strong we could see a re-test of 1.2720.
Should we fail to hold above 1.2297, we will be watching the key level at 1.2080 very closely. Any weakness below this level however sets this market up for a move down into 1.2000. If momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1.1896.
USD/JPY – 106.91 ( -58 or -0.54% )
The $/YEN is again testing key support and this is a market we are watching closely this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 12:30 – BoJ Interest Rate Announcement, Press Conference
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 109.21, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 109.94 and potentially 111.73.
If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a move lower into 106.52. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 105.50; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 104.97.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1798 ( +25 or +1.41% )
Gold continues to rally having finally reached the $1800 level. Can this market continue to rally?
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1786. Should this occur we would then need to see a strong break of 1830. Should this occur we could see a stronger move to 1850.
If Gold cannot hold above 1786, we will look for a move back down to 1755. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1724; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1702.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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