This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5107 ( +244 or +5.02% )
The ASX managed to hold onto its small recovery last week. Can it continue to hold this week? We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
NOTE: Friday is a public holiday in Australia (Good Friday)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Trade Balance
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Wed 11:30 – RBA Financial Stability Review
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 5050, followed by a push back above 5224. Should this occur we will look for a move into 5325, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 5630.
If the ASX cannot hold above 5050, we will look for a move back down to 4720. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest lower into 4537, and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 4267.
EUROPE
DAX – 9523 ( -57 or -0.59% )
After a relatively muted week, the DAX remained flat and we expect some increased volatility this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
For a sustained move to the upside we would like to see 9200 hold as support and see a strong close back above 9486. If momentum to the upside remains strong we could see a fast move up to 10262 before a break.
On the downside we are watching for a break and close below 9200. A strong break and close below this level could extend the DAX down to 8918. Further breaks below this level could see the DAX head to 8674.
US
SP500 – 2490 ( -40 or -1.58% )
The S&P was weaker with signs there may be more downside yet to come. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 20:30 – Unemployment Claims, Core PPI
Fri 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Fri 20:30 – CPI (monthly)
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 2390, followed by a retest of 2560. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2664 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2760, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 2870.
If we cannot hold above 2390, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2274. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2198; and a close below this level may result in a very fast move down to 2118 and 2085.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.5990 ( -176 or -2.85% )
The Aussie Dollar yet again drifted lower as this market remains under pressure. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Trade Balance
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Wed 11:30 – RBA Financial Stability Review
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.5865. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 0.6092. If upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6267 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.5865, we could see this market break lower and retest 0.5738. If momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.5525 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.0807 ( -332 or -2.98% )
The EURO was one of the weaker currencies last week and it is now at a critical juncture for the bulls.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.0652 on its way to retesting 1.0814. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.0902; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1033.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.0652, we could see a move back down into 1.0525. If this market continues to sell-off a move lower into 1.0480 is very possible; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a fast and sharp move down into 1.0344.
GBP/USD – 1.2270 ( -187 or -1.5% )
The Pound was also relatively quite despite closing the week down. We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
NOTE: Friday is a public holiday in the UK (Good Friday)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 20:30 – GDP (monthly)
For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable hold above 1.2080. followed by a close above 1.2297. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2480, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a push higher into 1.2720.
If the Pound cannot hold above 1.2080, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.1896. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.1740, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a fast move down into 1.1520.
USD/JPY – 108.45 ( +49 or +0.45% )
They $/YEN was slightly stronger last week however all eyes are now on the US Dollar.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 10:30 – BoJ Governor Kuroda speaks
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 108.31. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 109.21, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 109.94 and potentially 111.73.
If we cannot hold above 108.31, we could see a move lower into 106.52 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a sharp move lower into 105.50; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 104.97.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1615 ( -6 or -0.37% )
After selling off early in the week Gold managed to hold and recover and our levels this week are more compelling.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1575. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 1505; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1575.
If Gold cannot hold above 1575, we will look for a move back down into 1548. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1515.
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