This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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UPCOMING EVENTS
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 4741 ( -908 or -16.07% )
The ASX continues to sell off following more closures across the country.
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 4720, followed by a push back above 5050. Should this occur we will look for a move into 5325, and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a move to 5921.
If the ASX cannot gold above 4720, we will look for a move back down to 4537. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest lower into 4267, and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 4120.
EUROPE
DAX – 8617 ( -1049 or -10.85% )
The DAX is also continuing to fall after having its worst week on record for over 10 years.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
Wed 20:00 – German Final IFO
For a sustained move to the upside we would like to see 8200 hold as support and see a strong close back above 9486. If momentum to the upside remains strong we could see a fast move up to 10262 before a break.
On the downside we are watching for a break and close below 8200. A strong break and close below this level could extend the DAX down to 7654. Further breaks below this level could see the DAX head to 7160.
US
SP500 – 2280 ( -389 or -14.57% )
The S&P continues to decline as the situation worsens in the US. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI
Thu 23:30 – GDP (quarterly)
For a move higher, we would like to see the S&P hold above 2274, followed by a retest of 2390. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2560 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2720, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 2838.
If we cannot hold above 2274, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2198. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2118; and a close below this level may result in a very fast move down to 2085.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.5800 ( -378 or -6.12% )
The Aussie Dollar was also very weak last week on the back of more stimulus from government bodies. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.5865. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 0.6092. If upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6267 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.5865, we could see this market break lower and retest 0.5738. If momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.5525 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.0697 ( -403 or -3.63% )
The EURO has retracted all of its gains from last month following the outbreak in Europe.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
Wed 20:00 – German Final IFO
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.0652 on its way to retesting 1.0814. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.0902; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1033.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.0652, we could see a move back down into 1.0525. If this market continues to sell-off a move lower into 1.0480 is very possible; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a fast and sharp move down into 1.0344.
GBP/USD – 1.1642 ( -630 or -5.13% )
Cable was also down last week as the UK battles with the coronavirus heading into yet another important week.We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI
Wed 20:30 – CPI (annual)
Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement
For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable hold above 1.1520 followed by a close above 1.1740. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.1896, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a push higher into 1.2135.
If the Pound cannot hold above 1.1520, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.1423. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.1238, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a fast move down into 1.1086.
USD/JPY – 110.74 ( +274 or +2.54% )
They $/YEN was stronger as markets look for a safe haven.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 111.09. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 111.73, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 112.68.
If we cannot close above 111.09, we could see a move lower into 109.94 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a retest of 109.21; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 108.31.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1496 ( -32 or -2.09% )
Gold continues to hold strong between 1450 and 1460, and we will be watching these levels again this week.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1460. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 1505; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1575.
If Gold cannot hold above 1460, we will look for a move back down into 1433. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1416, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1402.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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