This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7095 ( -21 or -0.3% )
The ASX is struggling to break to new highs having struggled at the 7144 level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Construction Work Done (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Private Capital Expenditure (quarterly)
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 7011. Should this occur we will look for a re-test of 7144. A strong break of this level however is likely to see the ASX rally to to further all-time highs at 7286.
If the ASX cannot hold above 7011, we will look for a move back down to 6850. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6804 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6682.
EUROPE
DAX – 13558 ( -194 or -1.41% )
The DAX has put in a short-term high and this week will be interesting whether it can hold at previous low levels.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Fri 19:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 13576. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 13697, and if momentum remains strong a we will look for a retest of 13819.
If the DAX fails to hold above 13576, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 13333. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 13205; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 13000.
US
SP500 – 3338 ( -44 or -1.3% )
The S&P reached our key level of 3395 before retracing off more fears on the coronavirus spreading. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Fri 00:30 – Prelim GDP (quarterly), Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
Sat 00:30 – Personal Spending (monthly)
Sat 01:45 – Chicago PMI
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 3338. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3395. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move into 3420.
If we cannot close above 3338, we could see this market move lower into 3274. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3248; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3208.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6626 ( -87 or -1.3% )
The Aussie Dollar broke the key 66c level before managing to reverse on Friday. We will be discussing the impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – Construction Work Done (quarterly)
Thu 11:30 – Private Capital Expenditure (quarterly)
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6598. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6692, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6762 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.6598, we could see this market break lower and test 0.6519. If momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.6457 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.0847 ( +17 or +0.16% )
The EURO managed to put in a short-term low and posted a strong reversal on Friday.
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.0814; followed by a retest of 1.0830. A break above this level could see the EURO retest 1.0902; and if momentum is very strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move into 1.0977.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.0814, we could see a move down into 1.0738 before a pause. If this market continues to sell-off however, we could see a sharp move down into 1.0680 by the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2956 ( -90 or -0.69% )
The UK is holding up whilst many other currencies are selling off. We will be discussing this market again in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
For a move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2868, followed by a retest of 1.3035 before a pause. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.3161 – 1.3191.
On the downside, should we fail to hold above 1.2868, we will be watching the key level at 1.2720 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2622, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2480.
USD/JPY – 111.56 ( +179 or +1.63% )
They $/YEN finally broke out of its tight range and is now up against important resistance.
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Emperor’s Birthday)
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.09. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 111.73, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move higher into 112.68.
If we cannot close above 111.09, we could see a move lower into 109.94 before a pause to the downside. A break below this level may result in a retest of 109.21; and any further breaks to the downside may see a bigger move into 108.31.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1643 ( +60 or +3.79% )
Gold posted a very strong week as it again breaks to new multi-year highs.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1648. Should this occur we could see a strong move to 1675; and any break of this level could see a stronger move to 1687.
If Gold cannot close above 1648, we will look for a move back down to 1632. A break below this level could see a move lower into 1605; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a move to 1574.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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