This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 7068 ( -40 or -0.56% )
The ASX made yet another all-time high however finished the week poorly having failed at our all important level of 7144. Is this a warning sign..?
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Australia (Australia Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX close 7062. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 7144. A strong break of this level could see the ASX rally into 7192, and if momentum remains very strong we may see a move into 7286.
If the ASX cannot close above 7062, we will look for a move back down to 7011. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX move lower into 6850 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6720.
EUROPE
DAX – 13520 ( -17 or -0.13% )
The DAX is also struggling at key levels and with an important week ahead, we will be discussing this market this week in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Thu 19:00 – German Prelim CPI (monthly)
For a continued move to the upside we would now like to see the DAX hold above 13520. Should this occur we may see a fast move to 13697, and if momentum is very strong we could see a sharp move higher into 13787 and 13819.
If the DAX fails to hold above 13520, we could see a move back down into 13388. A break below this level could mean a further move down into 13205, and if momentum is very strong we could see a fast move down to 13050.
US
SP500 – 3290 ( -33 or -0.99% )
The S&P also pushed to new all-time highs this week but like the ASX and DAX, also failed at key technical levels. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 02:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 06:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 06:30 – FOMC Press Conference
Fri 00:30 – Advance GDP (quarterly)
Sat 01:45 – Chicago PMI
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above above 3338. Should this occur, we will look for a move higher into 3396 before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3450 and 3500!
If we cannot close above 3338, we could see this market move lower into 3274. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 3248; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 3208 and 3116.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6827 ( -46 or -0.67% )
The Aussie Dollar is still range bound despite more pressure from the sellers last week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 11:30 – CPI (quarterly)
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6873. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6800. A break of this level sets the stage for a move down to 0.6762; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a move into 0.6692.
EUR/USD – 1.1027 ( -62 or -0.56% )
The EURO was also down as we head into a very important week for this market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 21:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1033 on its way to retesting 1.1117. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.1197; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.1249.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1033, we could see a move back down into 1.0977. If this market continues to sell-off a move lower into 1.0902 is very possible; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we could see a fast and sharp move down into 1.0814
GBP/USD – 1.3071 ( +65 or +0.5% )
Cable continues to coil and all eyes will be on this market this week.. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement
For a continued move to the upside, we must now see Cable close above 1.3110. Should this occur we will look for a move into 1.3277; and if momentum to the upside remains strong we cannot rule out a break of the key resistance at 1.3386.
If Cable cannot close above 1.3110, we could see this market trade into 1.3035. A break of this level could see a quick move into 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a further move lower into 1.2720.
USD/JPY – 109.28 ( -88 or -0.8% )
The $/YEN has put in a short-term high as expected and we are watching this market for signs of continuation from last week.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 109.21 and close above 109.94. Should this occur we will look for a move into 110.31, and if momentum is very strong we could see a move to 110.78.
If we cannot hold above 109.21, we could see a move lower into 108.31. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.75 before a pause.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1571 ( +14 or +0.9% )
Gold once again consolidated sideways last week with signs the bulls are once again circling…
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1525, followed by a close above 1574. A break and close above this level sets the stage for a move to 1605; and if momentum is very strong to the upside we cannot rule out a move to 1620.
If Gold cannot hold above 1525, we will look for a sharp move back down to 1504. This is a pivotal area; and any break below this level sets the stage for a much larger move down to 1485, 1474 and potentially 1460.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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