This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6638 ( +71 or +1.06% )
The ASX has rallied higher last week coming within a few points of another key resistance area. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:55 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6682. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6804. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6850, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 7011.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6682, we will look for a move back down to 6635. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6544 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6435.
EUROPE
DAX – 12404 ( -50 or -0.4% )
The DAX spent the majority of last week trading back and forth in a range bound consolidation.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 17:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI
Tue 18:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Thu 23:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12374. Should this occur we will look for a move off 12566 into 12714. If momentum is very strong, we could see a fast move to 12921.
If the DAX fails to close above 12374, we will look for a move back down to 12198. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 12000 this week.
US
SP500 – 2986 ( –19 or -0.63% )
The S&P also spent the week in consolidation. Can we break higher from here? We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI
Wed 00:00 – CB Consumer Confidence
Thu 22:30 – Final GDP (quarterly)
Fri 22:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly), Personal Spending (monthly)
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 3003. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 3066. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3140.
If we cannot hold above 3003, we could see this market retest 2985. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2960; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2941.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6764 ( -113 or -1.64% )
The Aussie Dollar traded much lower last week with yet another move down into an important level. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 19:55 – RBA Governor Lowe Speaks
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD hold above 0.6762. Should this occur, we will look for a retest of of 0.6875, and if upside momentum remains very strong, we may see a push higher into 0.6934 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot hold above 0.6762, we will look for a retest of 0.6706. A break and close below this level sets the stage for a larger move down to 0.6598; and if momentum to the downside is very strong, 0.6457 cannot be ruled out.
EUR/USD – 1.1019 ( -53 or -0.48% )
The Euro continues to consolidate above the all important 1.1000 level. Will we see surprises this week? We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
Tue 18:00 – German Ifo Business Climate
Thu 23:30 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
For a move higher this week, we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1033; followed by a break back above 1.1197. Should this occur, we could then see a move to 1.1249 before a pause.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1033, we could see a move down into 1.0977 before a pause. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a move down into 1.0902; however any break of this level may result in a sharp move down to 1.0814 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2469 ( -28 or -0.22% )
Cable ended the week slightly lower than where it started and we will continue to watch this market closely again this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 23:45 – BoE Governor Carney Speaks
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.2622, followed by a retest of 1.2720 before a pause. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1.2868; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a stronger move into 1.3035.
On the downside, a close below 1.2480 could see this market sell off strongly into 1.2350. Any further weakness below this level could see the Pound continue to slide down into 1.2297; and if momentum to the downside is very strong this week we cannot rule out a move to 1.2195.
USD/JPY – 107.55 ( -56 or -0.52% )
The $/YEN has put in a short-term high; now the question is- will we see sellers resume control of this market this week?
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Japan (Autumnal Equinox Day)
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 107.75, on its way to retesting 108.31 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.21, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 109.94.
If we cannot close above 107.75, we could see a fast move lower into 107.36. A break below this level may result in a retest of 106.52 before a pause; however any breaks below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 105.50.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1488 ( +11 or +0.73% )
Gold continues to find support at key levels and this market is shaping up for another interesting week. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1505. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1526 ; and if momentum remains very strong, a strong break above this level could see Gold rally quickly into 1540 and 1552.
If Gold cannot close above 1505, we will look for a move back down into 1480. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1470, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1450.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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