This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6639 ( +41 or +0.62% )
The ASX continues its recovery, following the RBA’s decision to keep rates on hold last week. We will be discussing this in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 11:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6635. Should this occur, we will look for a test of 6682. If momentum to the upside continues we could see a retest of 6804, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out rule out a move to 6850.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6635, we will look for a move back down to 6544. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6435 before a pause; and if downside momentum is very strong, we could see a move down to 6350.
EUROPE
DAX – 12173 ( +214 or +1.79% )
The DAX posted a very impressive recovery and is now in rally mode. Can this continue this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate – LIVE TV
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close above 12198. Should this occur, we will look for a move into 12384. If momentum is very strong, we could see fast moves into 12566 and 12714.
If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12043 – 11983. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11875, and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move into 11755.
US
SP500 – 2982 ( +59 or +2.02% )
Following China’s added tariffs on Friday, this week we look to what impact Trump’s added tariffs will have. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 22:30 – PPI (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close back above 2985. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 3003. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 3066.
If we cannot close above 2985, we could see this market retest 2960. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2941; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a fast move down to 2904.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6848 ( +112 or +1.66% )
The Aussie Dollar has also rallied strongly again off positive economic data last week. We will be discussing this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 11:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.6873. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.6934, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7014 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.6873, we will look for a move lower into 0.6825. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6762.
EUR/USD – 1.1025 ( +35 or +0.32% )
The Euro struggled early in the week breaking well below the all important 1.1000 level; but managed to close above it for the week. We will be discussing this decline in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate – LIVE TV
Thu 22:30 – ECB Press Conference
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.0977; followed by a break back above 1.1033. Should this occur, we could then see a move to 1.1197 before a pause. If momentum is very strong, a larger move to 1.1249 cannot be ruled out.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.0977, we could see a bigger move down into 1.0902 before a pause. If this market continues to sell-off, we could see a move down into 1.0814 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2283 ( +121 or +0.99% )
The Pound was also stronger last week but with more news to come from Parliament this week, can it sustain this strength? We will be discussing the significance of this exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:30 – GDP (monthly)
Tue 18:30 – Average Earnings Index (quarterly)
For a continued move to the upside, we need to see Cable hold above 1.2195 followed by a retest of 1.2297. Should this occur we will love for a move back up into 1.2389, and if momentum is very strong we could see a push higher into 1.2480
If the Pound cannot hold above 1.2195, we are likely to see a quick move down into 1.2000. A break below this level could see a fast move down to 1.1896, and if momentum is strong to the downside we could see a fast move down into 1.1800.
USD/JPY – 106.92 ( +67 or +0.63% )
The $/YEN has marginally broken out of its range and this week we will find out whether or not it can sustain this breakout.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 106.52, on its way to retesting 107.25 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 107.75, and if momentum is very strong, we could see a move into 108.31.
If we cannot hold above 106.52, we could see a fast move lower into 105.50. A break below this level may result in a move down to 104.97. Any further breaks to the downside could see the $/YEN end up at 103.99 by the week’s end.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1505 ( -15 or -0.99% )
Gold put in an important reversal mid-week and the key 1505 level is now an area to watch. We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close above 1526. Should this occur, we will look for a move to 1540 and 1552; and if momentum remains very strong, we cannot rule out moves to 1570 and 1605.
If Gold cannot close above 1526, we will look for a retest of 1505. A strong break and close below this level could send this market lower into 1480, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move lower into 1470.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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