This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6477 ( +105 or +1.65% )
The ASX is once again attempting to break to new yearly highs, however markets will need to wait until Tuesday to re-open.
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Australia (Queen’s Birthday)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6435. Should this occur we will look for a test of 6500, and above this 6550. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6670.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6435, we will look for a move back down to 6350 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6276, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6180.
EUROPE
DAX – 12050 ( +344 or +2.94% )
The DAX posted a strong recovery last week with the ECB holding steady on rates. We will be discussing this market in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
NOTE: Monday is a holiday in Germany (Whit Monday)
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX close above 12198. Should this occur we will look for a move into 12384 before a pause. If momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a blow off move to 12566 and 12750.
If the DAX fails to close above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12000. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 11875 this week; and if downside momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 11720.
US
SP500 – 2876 ( +125 or +4.54% )
The S&P posted its best week for the year last week and the question now is, where to from here? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 22:30 – PPI (monthly)
Wed 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Fri 22:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2902. Should this occur we will look for a move to 2922, and potentially 2941 again before a pause. A strong break above this level however sets the stage for a move higher into 2960 and 2985.
If we cannot close above 2902, we could see this market retest 2838. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2812; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a very sharp move down into 2800 and 2785.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.6999 ( +65 or +0.94% )
The Aussie dollar is right up against 70c and this will be a crucial test for this market this week. We will be covering this market exclusively in the MEMBER PORTAL. This is shaping up to be a volatile week.
NOTE: Monday is a public holiday in Australia (Queen’s Birthday)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 10:30 – Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7014. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7113, and if upside momentum remains very strong we cannot rule out a move to 0.7197 – 0.7236 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.7014, we will look for a move lower into 6958. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1332 ( +163 or +1.46% )
Like other markets, the Euro also posted a strong week last week with an important low now in place.
NOTE: Monday is a holiday in France and Germany (Whit Monday)
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO hold above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end.
If the EURO cannot hold above 1.1249, we could see a fast move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.2737 ( +107 or +0.85% )
Despite a positive week, the Pound continues to struggle with uncertainty. Can this market recover this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 18:30 – GDP (monthly), Manufacturing Production
Tue 18:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable hold above 1.2720, followed by a retest of 1.2868 before a pause. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3035 and 1.3161; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a re-test of 1.3191.
On the downside, should we fail to hold above 1.2720, we will be watching the key level at 1.2622 very closely. A strong break below this level however sets this market up for a bigger move down into 1.2480.
USD/JPY – 108.19 ( -10 or -0.09% )
The YEN spent the entire week sideways so our levels remain unchanged this week.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market close above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21 before a pause. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.94, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.
If we cannot close above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1340 ( +35 or +2.68% )
Last week we mentioned we may see Gold move higher as it continues to test multi-year highs.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1333. Should this occur we will look for a move higher into 1355; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1365 and 1374.
If Gold cannot hold above 1333, we will look for a move back down into 1322. A strong break and close below this level however could send this market lower into 1313, and if momentum is strong to the downside we cannot rule out moves lower into 1303 and 1294.
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