This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6204 (+62 or +1.01%)
The ASX managed to regain its losses earlier in the week and we are on high alert going into this important week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Tue 19:30 – Annual Budget Release
Wed 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly), Trade Balance
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6180 on its way to retest 6206. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6276, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6180, we will look for a move back down to 6140 for strong support. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6070, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 5985.
EUROPE
DAX – 11542 (+210 or +1.85%)
The DAX was one of the stronger performers last week however can this market continue to rally? We will be discussing the importance of this move in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 22:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 11366. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 11566. This is a very big level and if the DAX can break strongly above this, we will look for moves into 11755 and 11875.
If the DAX fails to hold above 11366, we will look for a move back down to 11050 before a pause. Any break below this level however could see the DAX sell-off sharply into 10863 by the end of this week.
US
SP500 – 2835 (+33 or +1.18%)
The S&P continues to find buyers with yet another swing low in place. We will be discussing the importance of this move in the MEMBER PORTAL as it happens.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 23:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 01:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 23:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
Thu 01:00 — ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Fri 23:30 – Non-Farm Employment – LIVE TV
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2808. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2838 before a pause. A strong break below this level however see a bigger move into 2870, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2902 and 2930.
If we cannot hold above 2808, we could see this market sell-off into 2760 before another pause. A break of this level however may result in quick move down to 2736; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we may see a move down into 2704.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7096 (+16 or +0.23%)
The Aussie Dollar continues to remain in a tight range however this will be a very important week for this market.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – Building Approvals (monthly)
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Tue 19:30 – Annual Budget Release
Wed 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly), Trade Balance
For a move higher, we would first like to see the AUD close above 0.7113. Should this occur we will look for a move into 0.7197, and if upside momentum remains strong we will look for 0.7229 – 0.7236 before a pause.
If the AUD cannot close above 0.7113, we will look for a move lower into 0.7014. A break and close below this level however could see a sharp decline into 0.6997. Any further breaks to the downside could then see the AUD quickly trade at 0.6958 and 0.6934; and if momentum to the downside remains strong we cannot rule out a move into 0.6830.
EUR/USD – 1.1217 (-83 or -0.73%)
The Euro is testing a key double bottom area here with plenty of support. Will the buyers step in now?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 20:00 – CPI Flash Estimate (annual)
Thu 22:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
For a move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.1249 early in the week. Should this occur we could see a retest into 1.1335 and any breaks above this level may mean a quick move into 1.1453 before a pause. A strong close above this level however could see the EURO rally strong into 1.1496 by the week’s end.
If the EURO cannot close above 1.1249, we could see a fast move down into 1.1201 before a pause. A strong break of this level may result in a move into, however any weakness below this level could see a sharp drop into 1.1117 before the week’s end.
GBP/USD – 1.3029 (-182 or -1.38%)
Following last week’s Brexit upheaval, the Pound is now getting closer to making its move We will again be covering this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 19:30 – Manufacturing PMI
Wed 19:30 – Services PMI
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3035 and break through 1.3161 this week. Should this occur we will look for a move to 1.3191 and 1.3277; and if momentum is very strong, we could see a re-test of last week’s highs into 1.3386.
On the downside, if we cannot close above 1.3035 we will look for a move back down to 1.2868. A break below this level however could see this market retest the important 1.2720 level; and if momentum to the downside is strong we cannot rule out a bigger move down to 1.2622.
USD/JPY – 110.83 (+89 or +0.81%)
Like the S&P the YEN has has found a base at the key 109.94 level which we have been speaking about for sometime.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold strongly above 109.94. Should this occur we could see a strong move into 111.09. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 111.73, and if momentum is extremely strong to the upside 112.68 cannot be ruled out.
If we cannot hold above 109.94, we will look for another quick retest of 109.21. A break below this level however may result in a fast move down to 108.31, and if the downside remains very strong we cannot rule out a sell-off into 107.75.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1292 (-21 or -1.6%)
Gold is showing weakness and a strong move down last Thursday ensured Gold finished the week down.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market close and hold above 1294. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1303. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1313; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1322 and 1333.
If Gold cannot hold above 1294, we will look for a move back down into 1285. A strong break and close below this level however takes us down into the key 1276 – 1278 area. Should this level break, we could see a strong move down to 1260.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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