This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6109 ( +150 or +2.52% )
The ASX continues to rally and find buyers against sellers looking for a top. Can we continue higher this week?
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 19:30 – Annual Budget Release
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6070. Should this occur we will look for continued upside into 6140. A strong break above this level could see a strong move into 6206 by the week’s end.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6070, we will look for a move back down to 6010. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX retest 5985, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see a further move all the way back down into 5921.
EUROPE
DAX – 12834 ( +251 or +1.99% )
The DAX posted another strong week and could be poised for further gains this week. We will be discussing this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
NOTE: Thursday is a public holiday in Germany (Ascension Day)
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 23:15 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12921. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 13050, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13050.
If the DAX fails to close above 12921, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 12714. A close below this level is likely to see a retest of 12566; however if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 12384.
US
SP500 – 2665 ( -7 or -0.26% )
The S&P looked suspect early in the week but a Thursday reversal saw a strong rally on Friday into the close. We will be discussing the impact of this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:15 – FED Chair Powell Speaks
Wed 22:30 – PPI (monthly)
Thu 22:30 – CPI (monthly)
Sat 00:00 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2660. Should this occur we will look for a retest of the key 2680 level. A strong break and close above this level could see another retest of 2704, and if momentum remains strong to the upside we cannot rule out moves to 2720 and 2736.
If we cannot hold above 2660, we could see this market continue to sell-off into 2638. A strong break through this level however could quickly see a move down to 2590 before a pause. If momentum to the downside is strong we may see a move lower into 2562; and a close below this level may result in a move down to 2540.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7538 ( -43 or -0.57% )
The Aussie Dollar has found support at 0.7489 and the question now remains- can this market rally higher? We will discuss this again in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Mon 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Tue 11:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
Tue 19:30 – Annual Budget Release
For a move higher we must now see this market hold above 0.7489, followed by a retest of the key area between 0.7550 and 0.7561. A break above this level could see this market break higher and retest 0.7617; and if momentum is very strong we may see a quick move into 0.7662.
If we cannot hold above 0.7489, we will look for this market to break lower into 0.7447 before another pause. A strong break and close below this level however could mean this market sells off sharply into 0.7364.
EUR/USD – 1.1962 ( -168 or -1.38% )
More weakness in the EURO saw this market trade below the key 1.2000 level for the first time in over four months. Will the slide continue?
NOTE: Tuesday is a public holiday in France (Victory Day); and Thursday is a public holiday in Switzerland, France and Germany (Ascension Day).
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 23:15 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO close above 1.2010, followed by a retest of 1.2055. Should this occur, we will then look for this market to retest 1.2167; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.2268.
If however the EURO cannot close above 1.2010, we may likely see a move back down into the 1.1929 again. A strong break and close below this level could see a further move down into 1.1834; and if momentum is very strong a move down into 1.1738 cannot be ruled out.
GBP/USD – 1.3533 ( -245 or -1.78% )
The Pound continues to sell off and has closed right near our important level of 1.3534. This week is an important week for this market and we will be discussing this exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
NOTE: Monday is a bank holiday in the UK (May Day).
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 17:30 – Halifax HPI (monthly)
Thu 18:30 – Manufacturing Production (monthly)
Thu 21:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
For a move to the upside we would like to see a strong break and close above 1.3683. Should this occur we could see a quick move into 1.3875 before a pause. If momentum is very strong to the upside we may see a further push into 1.4075.
If we cannot close above 1.3683, we may see further selling into 1.3402 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see Cable sell off aggressively into 1.3277.
USD/JPY – 109.04 ( -1 or -0.01% )
The $/YEN was strong early in the week having reached our important 109.95 level before completely reversing to finish the week flat. As such our levels remain unchanged.
For a move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 108.31, on its way to retesting 109.21. A strong break and close above this level could then see the $/YEN rally into 109.95, and if momentum is very strong we could see moves to 110.31 and 110.78.
If we cannot hold above 108.31, we could see a fast move lower into 107.75. A break below this level may result in a retest of 107.36 and this is where things get very interesting. A break below this level could mean a very sharp move down to 106.52.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1314 ( -9 or -0.68% )
Gold posted a short-term low on Tuesday having failed to close below 1303, and this week we look to see if the buyers can hold this low.
For a continued move higher we must now see this market hold above 1303. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1316 followed by a quick retest of 1322. A strong close above this level could see further upside into 1333; and if momentum remains very strong, we could see a big push into 1340 and 1345.
If Gold cannot hold above 1303, we will look for a move back down into 1294. A strong break and close below this level however means the next area for support lies at 1285; and a break and close below this level could see sellers push this market lower into 1278.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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