This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 6013 ( +33 or +0.55% )
The ASX finally managed to close the week above 6000 for the first time in a month. Can this market hold this close and follow-through to the upside? We will be discussing this in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 09:15 – RBA Governor Lowe speaks
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6000. Should this occur we will look for this market to test 6070, and a break above this level could see a quick move to 6140 before a pause. If momentum is very strong, moves into 6250 and 6315 cannot be ruled out.
If the ASX cannot hold above 6000, we could see a move back down to 5921. A break below this may result in a retest of 5875, and if momentum to the downside continues we will look for a sell-off into 5823 before a pause.
EUROPE
DAX – 13158 ( +203 or +1.57% )
The DAX remains in its sideways range despite showing signs of pushing higher. This is a big week for European markets and we will be covering them exclusively LIVE.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wed 06:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Thu 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Fri 00:30 – ECB Press Conference – LIVE TV
For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX hold above 13050 and break strongly through 13205. Should this occur we will look for a strong move into 13388, and if momentum remains strong a push back higher into 13520.
If the DAX fails to close above 13205, we may see a retest back down into the key level of 13050. A close below this level is likely to see retests of 12921 and 12870; however if momentum is very strong and we break through 12830 we could see a strong sell-off into 12714.
US
SP500 – 2650 ( +6 or +0.23% )
The S&P is again approaching all-time highs going into one of the most important weeks of the year. We will be covering the US markets exclusively around the clock in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Wed 00:30 – PPI (monthly)
Thu 00:30 – CPI (monthly)
Thu 06:00 – FOMC Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Thu 06:30 – FOMC Press Conference – LIVE TV
Fri 00:30 – Retail Sales (monthly)
For a move higher we would like to see the S&P hold above 2648. Should this occur we expect a retest of 2660. A close above this level could see a sharp move to 2677, and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a strong push into 2690.
If we cannot hold above 2648, we will look for a move back down to 2628. However a close below this level may see the market retest 2600 with further downside to 2590. If momentum is very strong to the downside a move to 2562 cannot be ruled out.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7509 ( -102 or -1.34% )
The Aussie Dollar was yet again sold off last week and is now a few points above the key 75c level.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 11:30 – NAB Business Confidence
Wed 09:15 – RBA Governor Lowe speaks
Thu 11:30 – Unemployment Rate
For a move higher we must now see this market close above 0.7561 followed by a close above 0.7617. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7677. A strong break and close above this key level could see this market rally to 0.7729, and if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833.
Should the Aussie Dollar fail to close above 0.7561, we could see this market head lower to 0.7489 before a pause. If momentum to the downside continues, we will look for a move into 0.7447; however should we close strongly below this level we could see a sharp decline to 0.7364.
EUR/USD – 1.1772 ( -126 or -1.06% )
The EURO continues to drift lower as markets look to the ECB this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 21:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wed 06:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks
Thu 19:00 – French Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
Thu 19:30 – German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
Thu 20:00 – Euro Area Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
Thu 21:45 – ECB Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
Fri 00:30 – ECB Press Conference – LIVE TV
For a sustained move higher we would like to see the EURO break back above and close strongly through 1.1834. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 1.1942, and if momentum is very strong another retest of the important 1.2000 level.
If the EURO cannot break above above 1.1834, a break below 1.1738 could signal a strong decline- first into 1.1678 and then quickly to 1.1613 before another pause. A strong break and close below 1.1613 however may result in a sharp sell-off into 1.1496.
GBP/USD – 1.3392 ( -80 or -0.59% )
The Pound has struggled to break through our 1.3534 area and this is the level to watch this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 20:30 – CPI (annual)
Wed 20:30 – Unemployment RateI
Thu 23:00 – BoE Interest Rate Announcement – LIVE TV
For a continued move to the upside, we would like to see Cable close above 1.3534, on its way to retesting 1.3743. A break of this level could see the Pound quickly reach 1.3875 before a pause; and if momentum is very strong a move to 1.4075 cannot be ruled out.
If we fail to close and hold above 1.3534, we may see this market trade back into 1.3436. A strong break below this level could then see this market trade down to 1.3277 before a pause; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we cannot rule out a move to 1.3156.
USD/JPY – 113.46 ( +129 or +1.15% )
The $/YEN rally we alluded to weeks ago is now underway and this market is now approaching a very key area. We will be discussing the impact of this move in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Fri 10:50 – Tankan Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing Index
For a continued move to the upside we must first see this market close above 113.86. Should this occur we will look for a retest of retest 114.52. A break above this level may see the $/YEN move higher into 115.54, and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move to 116.08.
If we cannot close above 113.86 we will look for a move back down into 112.39. A break below this level is likely to result in a retest of 111.73; and as we mentioned last week: Should we break below 111.73 WATCH OUT- the move that follows may be very sharp into 111.09 and 109.94.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1248 ( -32 or -2.5% )
Last week we said GET READY for a big move and GOLD has not disappointed. Will this market continue to sell-off this week? Members will be first to know as we discuss this market in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For a continued move higher we would like to see this market close above 1294 followed by a move into 1303. A strong break past this level could see a move into 1313; and if momentum is very strong we will look for a move into 1322.
If Gold cannot close above 1294, we we will look for a move back down into the strong area of support between 1278-1276. A break below this level could see a quick test of 1266 however should this level break we are likely to see 1257 and 1247 very quickly.
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The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
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