This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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Trade View has entered the weekend Net Long.
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5460 ( – 235 or – 4.13% )
The ASX is struggling to break past the 5700 area and took another dive down, similar to the previous 2 towards the end of June and end of July. It has however found some temporary support near our FICM level of 5441 by reaching a low of 5437.
For the upmove to restart we need to see the area between 5441 – 62 hold as a strong level of support before a strong push back above 5505 can be seen. Momentum will then dictate the next break up past 5541. This will need to be a long up bar break before 5595 is reached followed by a 5636. Continued strong upward momentum is needed is we are to see a break and close past 5636. If this occurs then the 5700 area will be watched closely and discussed in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For the down move to continue this week then we need to see an early long down bar break and close past the key area between 5462 – 41 before reaching 5636. Another strong long down bar break past 5636 could see the ASX reach 5319 very quickly. If the momentum is strong and 5319 is broken then we will discuss lower levels in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
EUROPE
DAX – 11508 ( + 182 or + 1.61% )
While most world Indices fell away last week the DAX powered ahead. This is quite common by the DAX, so now the big question is will the rest of the world move higher or will the DAX fall back down to catch up to the rest of the world?
For the upmove to continue we would like to see an early strong long up bar break and close past both 11537 and 11621. This could then see the DAX reach 11791 and possibly 11841. Once this level is reached we need to see a long up bar break and close past 11841 before 12015 is reached.
If the down move from the last week has set the trend for this week then we would like to see an early move down to 11373. Once this occurs then the area between 11292 – 57 will need to be broken with a long down bar before 11163 is seen.
US
S&P – 2078 ( – 29 or + 1.38% )
The S&P is playing a little ping pong with traders. Once this is over the break either way will be very strong, so BE PREPARED.
For the upward move to restart we would like to see another V shape reversal moving the S&P back through 2085 and 2101 again before another attempt at breaking 2112 is achieved and before pushing for new all time highs again.
If the S&P cannot get back above 2100 early this week then another break down past 2076 could see the area between 2050 – 46 tested before a strong push down towards 2033 and 2024 is achieved.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7418 ( + 118 or + 1.62% )
Once again the AUD has bounced off one of our levels (7263) and then POP up she goes.
As always BE PREPARED.
If we are to see a continuation of last weeks up move then 7407 needs to hold as a strong level of support. Once this occurs then 7494 could be see. If the momentum is strong then we could see 7635 which would complete the range.
If we see a quick reversal back down past 7407 and a downside move starts then we need to see an early long down bar reaching 7263 followed by 7116 which is now in line with levels back in early 2009.
EUR.USD – 10965 ( – 19 or – 0.17% )
As the EUR has closed only a few points lower our comments remain the same:
If the EUR is to continue its move higher then we would like to see our FICM level of 10925 hold as a strong level of support before a break past 11038 is made. If the upward momentum is strong then we could see 11166.
If the down move is to restart then a strong long down bar break and close past 10925 could see the EUR reach 10780. This could then start a FREE FALL reaching 10590.
GBP.USD – 15490 ( – 130 or – 0.83% )
The GBP took another dip lower last week after a sideways move. It reached a low of 15424 before finding support and then closing above our key FICM level of 15458.
For the GBP to restart its run higher we would like to see 15458 hold as a strong level of support before we see early breaks past 15549 and 15591 before reaching 15644. 15644 will then need to broken with a long up bar before reaching our FICM level of 15744.
For the down move to continue we would like to see another strong break past our FICM level of 15458. This would then need to push the pair back down towards 15366. If 15366 is broken this week we could see 15280 and possibly 15220 reached.
USD.JPY – 12421 ( + 33 or + 0.27% )
After an initial move higher the USD struggled with the worse than expected job numbers. Some market commentators are saying that the FED will still raise rates, but here at Trade View we would prefer to listen to the markets as the USD fell away late on Friday after the announcement.
As the USD has not moved much our comments remain the same:
For the USD to continue its longer term rally we need to see a strong up bar break through 12464 before reaching 12558 again and testing the highs of June 2015.
For this pair to move back down we need to see a strong move back past the area 12346-24 before reaching 12275. if this too is broken then we could see 12225.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1094 ( – 1 or – 0.09% )
Move along, Nothing to see here:
Gold is moving sideways at the moment. Be Prepared for the next strong move.
As GOLD has closed only a few points lower our comments remain the same:
For the upward move to even stand a slight chance of occurring we would like to see a strong break past 1103 before 1134 can be reached. If this occurs then we will discuss further up moves on our website
Now that we saw the FREE FALL of GOLD, continued downside moves could occur if 1069 is broken. This could send GOLD down towards 1043 and possibly 1025.
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