This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
For a more detailed day-to-day overview of the markets and trade opportunities get monthly access for only $49.95.
CLICK HERE TO JOIN
We may take multiple trades throughout the week. We discuss this in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Trade View has entered the weekend NET LONG
UPCOMING EVENTS
INTERMEDIATE WORKSHOP
Our In-house Intermediate Workshops are now in high demand. Inquire now to avoid long delays.
APR 2017 – FULL
MAY 2017 – FULL
JUNE 2017 – FULL
JULY 2017 HERE – 2 seats remaining
INDICES
AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5865 ( +110 or +1.91% )
The ASX has broken out of the 2016 sideways range but a pullback on Friday could mean this market still has some work to do. We will discuss this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Retail Sales and Building Approvals on Monday, Trade Balance and Cash Interest Rate on Tuesday.
For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX break and close above 5921. Should this occur we will look for a move to 5985. A break through this level could see a retest of 6000; and if momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6140.
If the ASX cannot close above 5921, we will look for a move back down to 5823. A strong break and close below this level could see the ASX test 5777, and if momentum is strong we could quickly see further moves down to 5746 and 5705.
EUROPE
DAX – 12316 ( +242 or +2% )
The DAX continues a move higher. Will we see all-time highs this week??? We will be talking about this in more detail in the LIVE CHAT ROOM.
VOLATILITY ALERT: German Factory Orders on Thursday.
For a continued move to the upside we must see the DAX hold above 12198. Should this occur a break and close above 12381 sets up a scenario to retest the ALL-TIME HIGH’s at 12404. A strong break and close above this level could see a very quick move to 12714.
If the DAX fails to hold above 12198, we will look for a move back down to 12044. A strong break below this level is likely to see a push further down into 11875, and if downside pressure is strong this week a sharp move down to the 11788 – 11754 area cannot be ruled out.
US
SP500 – 2362 ( +15 or +0.64% )
Last Friday we mentioned the bears may not yet be done and we saw exactly that. The S&P continues to hold above 2334 (for now) and markets are gearing up for the next move.
VOLATILITY ALERT: ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, Trade Balance and Factor Orders on Tuesday, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
For a move higher we must first see the S&P hold above our key level of 2334. Should this hold we will look for a move to 2376, and further breaks to the upside could see a retest of 2386. Should momentum to the upside remain strong, a move back up to 2400 cannot be ruled out.
If we cannot hold above 2360, we could see a fast move back down to 2350 and key support at 2334. A break below this level may result in a sharp move down to 2312. A close below this level could see further downside to 2292.
FOREX
AUD/USD – 0.7625 ( +3 or +0.04% )
The Aussie Dollar was sideways all week so our levels remain unchanged. This week all eyes are on the RBA for commentary surrounding the future of interest rates. We will be discussing this market exclusively in the LIVE CHAT ROOM this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Retail Sales and Building Approvals on Monday, Trade Balance and Cash Interest Rate on Tuesday.
For a move higher we would like to see this market hold above above 0.7617. Should this occur we will look for a retest of 0.7677. A strong break and close above this key level could see this market rally to 0.7729, and if momentum is strong our next level higher is 0.7833.
On the downside, we are monitoring the 0.7617 level as an area for a pause, however a strong break below will likely result in a move back down to 0.7561; and if momentum remains strong to the downside we could quickly see 0.7489.
EUR/USD – 1.0657 ( -142 or -1.31% )
After a gap to the upside on Monday the EURO was aggressively sold off last week, and we are once again approaching key levels on the downside.
VOLATILITY ALERT: German Factory Orders on Thursday and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts on Thursday.
For a sustained move higher we must first see this market hold above 1.0631. Should this occur we may see a retest of 1.0738, and if momentum remains strong we will look for a move back up to 1.0814.
If we cannot hold above 1.0631, we will look for a move back down to 1.0570 before a pause. A strong break of this level may likely see 1.0525, and if the selling momentum is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 1.0462.
GBP/USD – 1.2552 ( +75 or +0.6% )
The British have triggered Article 50 and negotiations will now officially begin. Cable finished slightly higher in what was a volatile week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Manufacturing PMI on Monday, Construction PMI on Tuesday, Services PMI on Wednesday, Halifax HPI, Manufacturing Production and Goods Trade Balance on Friday.
For a move to the upside we would like to this market hold above 1.2480. A strong break and close above this level could see a retest of 1.2622. If momentum continues and remains strong to the upside we will look for a move to 1.2720.
If the GBP cannot hold above 1.2480, we will look for a move back down to 1.2430. A break below this level may see a retest of 1.2297, and should momentum to the downside remain strong we may see a move back down to 1.2240.
USD/JPY – 111.37 ( +10 or +0.09% )
The YEN has put in a short-term bottom. An attempt to rally last week was again met by sellers on Friday. The question now is do we go higher or lower from here? We will be discussing this in more detail in the MEMBER PORTAL this week.
VOLATILITY ALERT: Tankan Manufacturing Index on Monday.
For a continued move to the upside we must now see this market hold above 111.09. Should this occur we will look for a move back up to 111.73, and a retest of the key level at 112.22. Should we break and close above 112.22 we could see a strong move into 113.87 – 114.08, and if momentum is very strong a move higher into 114.52 cannot be ruled out by week’s end.
If we cannot hold above 111.09, the YEN may see further downside into a key area between 110.10 – 109.94. A strong break and close below 109.94 may result in further downside into 109.21, and if downside momentum is very strong this week 108.31 cannot be ruled out.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1249 ( +4 or +0.32% )
GOLD continues to test our key levels on the upside and we have a real battle between the buyers and sellers.
For a continued move higher we would like to see this market hold above 1247, followed by a retest of 1257. Should this occur we will look for a continued rally into the key 1276 – 1278 area.
If Gold cannot hold above 1247, we will look for a move lower into 1222. A strong break below this level could then see a retest of the very important 1206 level by week’s end.
A detailed version of this brief complete with additional analysis is available to existing Clients.
If you are an existing client please Log In.
If you are not a member, sign up to our member portal now for only $49.95!
DISCLAIMER
The views represented on this website do not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial advice, recommendations, opinions in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a financial product of any kind, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Trade View Investments accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. The research does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
TRADE VIEW MAY CHANGE THE VIEW PRESENTED AT ANY TIME AND WILL NOT PUBLISH ANY UPDATE TO THAT EFFECT.
This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed.
