This market brief is an overview of the week ahead and some of the events we see as being important to the markets.
Please be aware that our views may change throughout the course of the week, and we do not publish updates of such changes.
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AUSTRALASIA
ASX – 5525 ( + 41 or + 0.75% )
The ASX went down early in the week but found enough support in the low 5400’s before rebounding to close above 5500. This week will be very important in determining the next direction for the ASX.
For the upmove to continue we would like to see a strong long up bar break and close above 5542 before pushing towards 5595 and possibly reaching 5636. Once this level is broken we will discuss next possible extensions in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
Our downside comments remain the same: If the downward move restarts we would like to see the area between 5463 – 44 broken with a long down bar pushing towards 5418. Once this occurs 5367 could be seen very quickly. If 5367 is also broken we could see the ASX near 5319 were it could find some support.
EUROPE
DAX – 11206 ( + 11 or + 0.10% )
What a wild ride for the DAX traders last week as the DAX reached a low of 10864 which was only 5 points below our FICM level of 10869. Then we saw a 300+ points bounce followed by another drop back down to 11000. Plenty of opportunities for the Traders to Trade. Unless a deal is brokered over the weekend expect more Volatility this week. As the DAX has only closed 11 points higher our comments from last week remain the same:
For the upmove to restart back up we would like to see a strong early break and close back up above the area between 11227 – 92. This could lead the DAX towards 11373. Once this level is broken we could see the DAX reach 11537 very quickly possibly extending towards 11621. If the Greek situation is sorted expect the DAX near 11868.
If we see continued issues with Greece the levels we will be watching closely will be 11163, 11080 and 10941 and finally 10869. If 10869 is broken with a long down bar we will discuss the potential downside targets in our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
US
S&P – 2094 ( + 1 or + 0.05% )
The S&P tried to recover early in the week and it did rallying past 2112, but then falling straight back below before settling only 1 point above last weeks close. There is a lot going on in this world but at the moment its uncertainty moving the markets. When this is resolved hold onto your hats. Our comments remain the same from last week:
If the upward move is to restart we need to see a strong up bar break through 2100 before the two important levels of 2112 and 2126 are reached and broken. If the upward momentum is strong we could see 2137 broken with a long up bar reaching 2148.
If the S&P cannot get back above 2100 early this week we could see 2085 and 2076 broken with a long down bar before reaching the full downside range and possibly finding support near 2050 – 46.
FOREX
AUD.USD – 7727 ( + 109 or + 1.43% )
Another rally by the AUD early in the week, with Friday being a down day.
For the upmove to restart we would like to see a strong break and close above 7778 again. Once this occurs then 7869 could be seen very quickly.
Our downside comments remain the same: For the longer term downside move to continue a strong break past 7635 could see the AUD in a bit of a FREE FALL reaching 7498 very quickly. If the move is strong then it extend towards 7407.
EUR.USD – 11269 ( + 156 or + 1.40% )
The EUR moved higher early in the week to only again get unstuck near its full range of 11396 with a high of 11386.
If the EUR is to move back up again we would like to see a solid break past 11315 before another attempt at breaking and closing past our FICM level of 11396 is made. Once this is done then we could see 11471
If the EUR struggles again at our FICM level of 11396 then a strong break back down past 11166 could see it near 11038 very quickly. Once this is broken the downside move will reach its full range near the area between 10941 – 25.
GBP.USD – 15558 ( + 291 or + 1.91% )
The GBP is really going for it. Downside moves are brought back very quickly at the moment. Lets see if this continues this week.
For the GBP to continue its run higher we would like to see 15644 broken early in the week followed by a long up bar break and close past our FICM level of 15745. Once this occurs then 15834 could be seen, if the upward momentum is strong we could see the GBP extend all the way up to 15988 (ambitious).
For the down move to restart then a strong long down bar break and close past our FICM level of 15448 could see 15366, 15280 and 15238 become spectators before reaching 15209. Once this level is broken we will discuss further downside moves in LIVE CHAT ROOM.
USD.JPY – 12339 ( – 221 or – 1.76% )
Sometimes you need to take your profits when moves get extended otherwise down, down, down. The USD fell away last week against most majors and the Yen was no exception with Interest rate talk all over the media.
For the USD to continue its rally we need to see a strong up bar break through 12403 before reaching 12464. Once this level is broken we could see the pair near 12558 testing the last month’s highs. Once this is broken we will discuss the next levels within our LIVE CHAT ROOM.
For this pair to move back down we need to see another move past 12275. If the downward momentum is strong then we will be watching 12225 and the area between 12184 – 52 very closely.
COMMODITIES
GOLD – 1181 ( + 10 or + 0.85% )
GOLD will ping pong back and forth until there is a decision on Interest rates. Our comments remain the same:
For the upward move to restart we need to see GOLD break back above the area between 1178 – 80 before reaching 1192. Once this occurs GOLD could be back above 1200 and near 1208 very quickly.
For the down move to restart and continue the area between 1180 – 78 needs to become a solid level of resistance before GOLD reaches 1167 and finally 1161 again. If we see continued downward momentum then 1149 will not be far away.
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